Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

[Stormchaser4life]

I think the enhanced risk for tomorrow needs to be brought south into northwest Oklahoma with a 10% hatched tornado threat.

Tornado threat still conditional in those areas due to high LCL's, stronger capping, and weaker shear being more removed from upper level shortwave. However, llj does increase towards 0z and moisture is better south so helps to decease T-Td spreads. But not sure a storm will be able to sustain itself long if it moves off dryline. Cap might choke it out. Better llj and moisture is a little displaced east of DL.

 

[Maxis_s]

Oh, ok.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

H O T H E L I C I T Y

SRH 0 TO 1 KM....2,000 M2S2
SRH 0 TO 3 KM....2,500 M2S2
SRH 0 TO 6KM....3,000 M2S2

 

[Kds86z]

Moderate Risk today. Well alright then.

 

[James Sm.]

CSU-MLP seemingly moving the busiest area further east/northeast for day 3

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Moderate Risk today. Well alright then.

Wind driven…

 

[joshoctober16]

FV3 has a doomsday ef10 tornado scoring up bedrock in Oklahoma.

Can’t wait for this to not happen.
View attachment 27208View attachment 27209

wait what day is this even for?

 

[jiharris0220]

wait what day is this even for?

Today, which I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong tornado or two if supercells are able to fire and maintain themselves in Oklahoma.

Obviously though we could just have another cap Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and nothing happens.

 

[Clancy]

@CheeselandSkies Tuesday might be a big day for y'all.

 

[Stormchaser4life]

I think CSU is a bit too east imo based off most model guidance

 

[CheeselandSkies]

@CheeselandSkies Tuesday might be a big day for y'all.
View attachment 27216View attachment 27217

Yep, definitely watching. Rather baffled at SPC's Day 3 outlook and the lack of a hatched area for any hazard, given the general pattern (compact, negatively tilted shortwave, deepening surface low with rich moisture in the warm sector) and environment depicted over parts of IA/MN/WI on the models.

 

[Maxis_s]

CSU-MLP seemingly moving the busiest area further east/northeast for day 3 View attachment 27215

Tornado driven high risk for day 3 according to this? Holy cow.

 

[Maxis_s]

WHY DOES THE FV3 KEEP SHOWING A SUPERCELL WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

 

[CheeselandSkies]

WHY DOES THE FV3 KEEP SHOWING A SUPERCELL WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

Like I posted earlier in the thread, appears it's actually resolving the supercell's mesocyclone as a small mesolow (which it technically is, it's just only relatively recently we've had models with high enough resolution to show this).

 

[Maxis_s]

Like I posted earlier in the thread, appears it's actually resolving the supercell's mesocyclone as a small mesolow (which it technically is, it's just only relatively recently we've had models with high enough resolution to show this).

Crazy thing is, pretty much every single model is agreeing with the placement and strength of that supercell, along with another one with a deep mesolow the next day in southwest Nebraska. I don't remember seeing this much consistency on a supercell, let alone how strong it may be.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[TheSuckZone]

PDS SVR Watch out

 

[SmokeEater]

PDS SVR Watch out

That's not exactly a common occurrence... 95/90 wind, 95/80 hail.

 

[SmokeEater]

SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and track rapidly eastward across the watch area through the afternoon and evening. Supercells capable of giant hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat early. Storms willo rganize into multiple fast-moving bowing lines through the evening with a risk of widespread damaging winds.

 

[Kds86z]

SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and track rapidly eastward across the watch area through the afternoon and evening. Supercells capable of giant hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat early. Storms willo rganize into multiple fast-moving bowing lines through the evening with a risk of widespread damaging winds.

Isolated tornadoes mentioned in pds svr watch? I’ve tracked weather for 20 years, but seems odd?