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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

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Perhaps a tad further east than 4/26, which would work in my favor since I took Monday/Tuesday off from work but not Wednesday, back when tomorrow/Monday were looking a bit higher ceiling in KS than they do now. My range wouldn't be too limited Tuesday but I'd have to be back to start my shift at 3AM Wednesday.

At this rate I might skip out on chasing tomorrow/Monday and just rest up for Tuesday, especially given the above.
 

Tanner

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A lot of people I see on socials are saying that the primary threat on the 21st is going to be from a QLCS with winds and embedded tornadoes…

I think I’d like to know what they’re smoking.
 
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A lot of people I see on socials are saying that the primary threat on the 21st is going to be from a QLCS with winds and embedded tornadoes…

I think I’d like to know what they’re smoking.

I mean, with strongly forced setups it's always a possibility (that you will get nothing but a QLCS), but not a guarantee especially if shear vectors have enough perpendicularity to allow for storm motion off the initiating boundary.
 

andyhb

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Need to be watching NW/W OK tomorrow on the southern periphery of the wave/stronger mid level flow ejecting into the Central Plains. Multiple CAMs (NSSL WRF, NAM 3 km, FV3, both 12z MPAS runs, and the TTU WRF) have supercells down here on the nose of higher theta-e and a surging low level jet near sunset.
 
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FV3 has a doomsday ef10 tornado scoring up bedrock in Oklahoma.

Can’t wait for this to not happen.
View attachment 27208View attachment 27209

Appears it's actually resolving the simulated supercell's mesocyclone as a 993MB mesolow...

First time I saw a CAM do that (although IIRC it was the NSSL-WRF) was for April 4 of last year which ended up verifying as the Table Grove-Lewistown, IL tornadic HP; although I didn't put enough enough stock into it (mainly because the HRRR didn't agree) to jump on the developing convection that became that storm in time.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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I think the enhanced risk for tomorrow needs to be brought south into northwest Oklahoma with a 10% hatched tornado threat.
 

TornadoFan

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North America Weather GIF by BBC America
 
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