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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 5/16-5/19, 2017

Bama Ravens

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Wow

IMG_0458.jpg
 

warneagle

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Oh jeez. Tornado warning including Greensburg.

Really really strong rotation on that storm south of Waynoka. That thing could put down a significant tornado, live tornado-rating aside.
 

warneagle

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Looks like the runs of the HRRR that showed the most favorable conditions in west OK and were kinda messy over the high risk area were pretty accurate.
 

WesL

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I've enabled LIVE mode for this thread. TW Members who are logged in will be able to leave this page open and any additional posts will automatically populate at the bottom of the thread. This feature will turn off automatically once 60 minutes has passed since the last post.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Wow that was a beast circulation near Rising Star, TX earlier.
 

Bama Ravens

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So, the ultimate question. Were the high risk and PDS Tornado watches warranted?

There were a lot of tornadic storms, with good rotation and meso's, but most of the time they would spin up and then occlude. Didn't seem like any large, long track tornadoes could get going for an extended period of time.
 

bwalk

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In good old hindsight the PDS does not appear to be justified. The high risk - probably. I think the SPC would say, given the strong predictive model data we had before the event, it was better to be safe than sorry. Note: I am not criticizing the NWS/SPC. It is a tough spot to be in to make these calls.

At 11pm CST, there are still 5 active tornado warnings for Oklahoma. All of these warnings are radar indicated and associated with the squall line/QLCS. A couple of these warnings are tail-end Charlie associated - down at the southern end of the squall line.
 
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warneagle

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The piece that came out in the Washington Post the other day where they interviewed the SPC's warning coordination meteorologist was pretty enlightening as far as the risk level decision process goes, since I'm sure there's going to be plenty of discussion of that again soon here.
 

Daryl

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