Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/2/17-4/3/17

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

This looks to be a heavy rain, and wind event. With the HRRR having it come in earlier then most thought, could just get trough with a windy morning, with a few possible severe thunderstorm warning. Can't rule out a tornado warning, but this looks way to messy. I am speaking for central Alabama of course, but even further south where the mdt risk is, it could be scaled back some, maybe even go back to enhanced.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Ahh, I see now. Thanks guys.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

HRRR, other guidance, and radar trends seem to be on schedule for us folks further East. Unless something crazy occurs, still thinking the line will intensify over Central and North Central GA. Isolated cells look to develop ahead of the line over East Georgia and the Piedmont of South Carolina. Should be an interesting event.

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Lots of schools around here releasing at Noon including Daleville and Dothan. HRRR and NAM 3k both would say good call if they want the kids to leave just in time to play in the rain and get soaked on the trip home!

 

[Equus]

Day one outlook at 6z has dropped the moderate and put in an enhanced as the highest category. Tor probs at 5%. Not the only recent day two to day one moderate downgrade recently if I recall.

 

[Brent]

Downgraded to enhanced

 

[Timbo64]

https://www.facebook.com/pg/BradTravisWAFF48/videos
In the video "Locally heavy rain Monday FB live on a Sunday night" (starting at 15:20 in the video)
Brad talks about how the SPC Outlooks have been under-performing lately and the problems that's causing.
Brad: "When you issue a day 2 moderate risk and then, within 12 hours, you're down to a general thunderstorm forecast it's really a problem because that's who the school systems are getting their information from."

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Bama Ravens]

SPC probably jumped the gun ever putting the moderate risk out for today.

 

[MattW]

So much for chasing anything today.

 

[pritchlaw]

This is becoming so common. 2 days out the risks are forecast too high, have to be scaled back once the event is almost happening. The SPC is losing credibility on their forecasts on these things with me. By the time they adjust it, the event is so close, or even already occurring, that anyone could have come up with their analysis. I'd hate to see them go all Weather Channel and just be slinging out sensationalism every time there's model spitting out some significant event that is likely not going to materialize.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

So much for chasing anything today.

If you're feeling adventurous, and want to chase the rolling beauty of East Georgia, head over to Athens. You should see semi discrete convection begin to mature after noon. Central Georgia into the Piedmont/Sandhills of SC has always had the "higher" tornado potential for today.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Two Tornado warnings in North Central GA now.

 

[Equus]

Lot of TOR popping along the line from GA all the way to the FL panhandle. None look impressive. Am I missing something, or perhaps they were short lived spin ups that I missed on radar by a frame or two?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Lot of TOR popping along the line from GA all the way to the FL panhandle. None look impressive. Am I missing something, or perhaps they were short lived spin ups that I missed on radar by a frame or two?

Several mid level circulations have developed within the line. The Carroll and Paulding cells have shown tightening low level rotation at times, thus the warnings. The Carroll cell has really broadened.

 

[Equus]

Ah, ok. Thanks. I was only checking the low level scans.

If there's a tornado in the Ozark storm, it might legitimately hit KEOX in a couple moments. Let's hope not

 

[warneagle]

And of course, KVAX is down.

 

[Equus]

Shades of 1/22, that. Going the HTX route of loving clear air mode but hiding scared of storms I guess.

Is it just me or is part of the line breaking into segments? Could be an interesting day

 

[Argus]

Lots of junk convection in northeast Georgia right now.

 

[Kory]

The northern end of the line looks elevated in nature. IF that is the case, not sure why there are tor warnings....