Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/2/17-4/3/17

[Bama Ravens]

HRRR has the line coming through Birmingham around 6am tomorrow morning.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Well, it's just about completely reorganized into a squall line now.
Interesting that the SPC is still only reporting 6 tornadoes, mostly from this morning, but radar indicated rotation has suggested around 15-25 so far. I wonder why they're so far behind with the reports.

 

[WesL]

Impressive view from GOES 16 via IR. Just wow.

 

[andyhb]

Well, it's just about completely reorganized into a squall line now.
Interesting that the SPC is still only reporting 6 tornadoes, mostly from this morning, but radar indicated rotation has suggested around 15-25 so far. I wonder why they're so far behind with the reports.

Severe weather ops take up a lot of time in the heat of the event, recording LSRs are generally put on low priority until the event is over.

 

[WesL]

Listening to Vicksburg area scanner reports of multiple flood related rescues including one officer that was caught up in rising water.

 

[Bama Ravens]

BMX is doing a live update on Periscope. They feel that the rain in MS is spreading eastward faster than anticipated. If it moves in, it obviously could impact the advection of higher CAPE values.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

BMX is doing a live update on Periscope. They feel that the rain in MS is spreading eastward faster than anticipated. If it moves in, it obviously could impact the advection of higher CAPE values.

Please give a recap of their update when they finish.

 

[Tyler Penland]

SWS from FFC regarding tomorrow.
...Widespread Severe Storms Likely Monday...

A potent weather system is expected move out of the lower
Mississippi River valley tonight and into the local area through
Monday. All of North and Central Georgia will be affected by this
system with damaging winds...tornadoes and large hail the primary
hazards.

Timing...Storms will move into portions of West Central and North
Georgia including the Atlanta metro between 11am and 2pm and last
for several hours. For areas from Columbus to Macon...we can
expect the activity between 1pm and 4pm and finally Abbeville to
Dublin between 3pm and 7pm. These time periods are subject to
change slightly based on later guidance.

Hazards...

Damaging winds...A line of severe storms will push through the
area with damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph the primary threat. This
will down trees and powerlines in the storms path and precautions
should be made now to secure any light outdoor objects like lawn
furniture.

Tornadoes...Ahead of the main line...individual storms are likely
to develop...especially over west central portions including the
Columbus area. There is a risk for long track tornadoes of EF2
intensity or greater with these storms.

Hail...Hail as large as an inch and a half will be possible with
these storms as well...especially south of the I20 corridor.

Please take this time ahead of the storms to review your severe
weather plan and make sure your NOAA weather radio is operational.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Please give a recap of their update when they finish.

It can be replayed. I'll see if I can post a link.

 

[Kory]

BMX is doing a live update on Periscope. They feel that the rain in MS is spreading eastward faster than anticipated. If it moves in, it obviously could impact the advection of higher CAPE values.

It's actually several hours ahead of projections. Might actually allow for better thermo recovery tomorrow afternoon behind the MCS (assuming it gets out in time and doesn't stall).

If we can get better recovery behind for tomorrow, maybe some isolated severe storms tomorrow afternoon IF we can get convection to fire. These MCS's are woeful to forecast.

 

[Bama Ravens]

It's actually several hours ahead of projections. Might actually allow for better thermo recovery tomorrow afternoon behind the MCS (assuming it gets out in time and doesn't stall).

If we can get better recovery behind for tomorrow, maybe some isolated severe storms tomorrow afternoon IF we can get convection to fire. These MCS's are woeful to forecast.

Satterwhite says that they think the steady rain behind the line will last long enough that they do not expect much redevelopment behind the line.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Praying we can scrape by tomorrow....Wednesday gas my greatest attention...but at this time I hear that the global models still not at a concensus.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Here is the link to the Periscope BMX just did.

 

[Kory]

Some pretty heavy totals coming out of West LA over a foot of rain. Classic upper level jet splitting leading to enhanced divergence and a stalled trailing end of a MCS....

Won't surprise me for some places to see 18"....

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

This system is moving in much quicker than forecasted. The atmosphere will be more stable over north Al and Ga because of this.

 

[warneagle]

Mobile schools closed tomorrow.

 

[MattW]

NAM 3km has trended slightly more north for Atlanta over the last two runs. Also about an hour or so faster, does seem to limit things a tad.

 

[Bama Ravens]

CAPE struggling to advect in thus far.

@WesL, for some reason when I post the mesoanalysis map, it turns black, when it is supposed to be white. Any idea why? Doesn't really bother me, but it makes it harder to read the numbers.

 

[Fred]

CAPE struggling to advect in thus far.

@WesL, for some reason when I post the mesoanalysis map, it turns black, when it is supposed to be white. Any idea why? Doesn't really bother me, but it makes it harder to read the numbers.

Looks to be a transparency issue.

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

those SPC Maps have no background so they show whatever the page shows

Clicking this link and look close you will see that the background is actually white with gray squares which means its transparent

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1491187867705