...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
..SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO
AND THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER COUPLE IN A SERIES OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS, EMANATING FROM A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET BEFORE ADVANCING INLAND, APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THE LEAD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS/SABINE VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE, INTO AND THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM, SOME MOISTURE RETURN MAY COMMENCE
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THE
POTENTIALLY BROAD WARM SECTOR OF THE EASTERN CYCLONE, GUIDANCE
REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT RICHER INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BECOME CUT OFF AT SOME POINT, BY SOME
COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR EASTERN GULF COAST STATES, AND AN
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION.
..SOUTHEAST
MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LEAD IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE, LEADING TO INCREASING CONCERN THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS COULD PRECEDE AT LEAST THE REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY, AND IN THE
PROCESS OF ADVANCING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUATION OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY,
OR REDEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD BE
SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO SCENARIOS, WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS/TORNADOES WITH THE INITIAL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. AS
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION, RENEWED STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ON ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY, ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE GEORGIA PIEDMONT.
..KERR.. 04/01/2017
