Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/23-3/27 Weekend or Whatever

[WesL]

FB Live video from near Dallas, TX of Golfball size hail -
Courtesy Jake Hudson

 

[Kory]

Tornado warning just to the south of Ada, OK.

That one did produce.

Currently a nicely rotating storm west of McAlester.

 

[WesL]

FB Live Video from N. of Dallas driving through hail storm - Courtesy Holly Wright

 

[WesL]

Intense hail storm moving through areas North of Dallas. Listen to the hail hitting the roof of the car port. FB Live video courtesy of Other Red Photography.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

The Enhanced risk has been shifted East into Northwest Alabama. Lamar County to Limestone County.

 

[Kory]

Watch out later. We've got capping currently keeping any convection from going off, which will help build instability through the day. Very steep lapse rates per the JAN sounding (7.8 C/KM) are advecting into AL. When that cap breaks, we will likely have isolated supercells capable of producing some hail...potentially large.

 

[ARCC]

Watch out later. We've got capping currently keeping any convection from going off, which will help build instability through the day. Very steep lapse rates per the JAN sounding (7.8 C/KM) are advecting into AL. When that cap breaks, we will likely have isolated supercells capable of producing some hail...potentially large.

Some of the lapse rates in the NAM yesterday were insane at over 8.3.

That cold air aloft is very impressive.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Watch out later. We've got capping currently keeping any convection from going off, which will help build instability through the day. Very steep lapse rates per the JAN sounding (7.8 C/KM) are advecting into AL. When that cap breaks, we will likely have isolated supercells capable of producing some hail...potentially large.

Any thoughts on any potential tornado threat? Seems very unlikely to me, but you guys know more than I do.

 

[Kory]

Any thoughts on any potential tornado threat? Seems very unlikely to me, but you guys know more than I do.

Low level winds are way too weak. I just don't see it....

 

[Bama Ravens]

New Day 1 puts NW corner of Alabama in the enhanced risk.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I would say the tornado threat is limited. Although, Northern Alabama will have decent low level/deep layer shear values that are supportive of isolated tornadoes. That is why most local NWS offices are mentioning the possibility.

Large hail and damaging winds are by far the more worrisome threats attm. Any sustained updraft will more than likely produce severe hail.

 

[Xenesthis]

I don't see this being a big event at all. As Kory said the low level winds are too weak! Watch out Thursday though!

 

[warneagle]

Best chance of seeing a tornado is probably up in SW TN.

 

[ARCC]

RAP has SBcape 2000-2500 over a good chunk of AL and all of MS right now.

 

[Kory]

RAP has SBcape 2000-2500 over a good chunk of AL and all of MS right now.

That's what happens when you have temps popping into the mid to upper 70s and dews in the mid 60s. Not to mention 500mb temps of -16C.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Yep, here is the SPC Mesoanalysis (RAP) map.

 

[Mike S]

ULM launching balloons this morning. I assume as part of the Vortex team.

15z sounding near Section, Al

15z sounding from Tuscumbia, Al

 

[Richardjacks]

Beginning to see some towering cu west of bhm with some sunshine.

Sent from my SM-N920V using TalkWeather mobile app

 

[Bama Ravens]

SVR Watch possible by 1pm CDT for western TN, in the enhanced risk area.

 

[Kory]

Dews are not mixing out much in West AL compared to MS. We're under a moist axis. Differential dews will likely serve as an initiation point.