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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

Of all the cells near Houston the one near Sugar Land could be the most concerning. It's pretty clean inflow and is moving into a relatively higher sheared environment. The path would go right through the metro, but fortunately these cells are having trouble organizing.
 
AJS said:
Slight break in the storms for me right now. Some sun has broken out. Not sure if I am in the clear or not or if there are more storms coming.
Click to expand...
Watch is still in effect for much of the area, so development behind what just passed is possible. Would remain vigilant, though nothing looks to be threatening your area directly right now.
 
Meanwhile MEG:

2:15pm Yesterday Concerning Saturday's threat:

"Saturday looks to be the main concern for severe weather potential
as another wave moves across the area. Cloud coverage is difficult
to forecast, but guidance has hinted at some clearing at peak
daytime heating hours (across north Mississippi); enhancing the
instability previous days have been lacking. The plentiful shear is
still present on Friday with a impressive wind profile on
deterministic soundings. As severe weather probabilities increase,
we will monitor this evolution closely. Another soaker of a day will
be possible as well with this wave with 1-1.5" across eastern
portions of the area."

2:05pm Today Concerning Saturday's threat:

"Saturday looks to be the main concern for severe weather potential
as another wave moves across the area. Cloud coverage is difficult
to forecast, but guidance has hinted at some clearing at peak
daytime heating hours (across north Mississippi); enhancing the
instability previous days have been lacking. Plentiful shear is
present on Friday (50kts bulk shear) with a impressive wind profile
on deterministic soundings. As instability still remains the
limiting factor, some guidance hints at pre-system stratiform rain
which would not allow for enough recovery time for organized
convection. As severe weather probabilities increase, we will
monitor this evolution closely. Another soaker of a day will be
possible as well with this wave with 1-1.5" across eastern portions
of the area."

You take out the some guidance hints at pre-system stratiform rain sentence and it's the same exact wording as yesterday. I can't.
 
Surprised by the inland advance of >1,000 j/kg CAPE values depicted on the 18Z NAM. Kinematics aren't overly impressive, but would be more than enough. Still have a lot of questions about convective evolution, though.
1735246375739.png1735246472908.png
 
If this low pressure system Saturday was just 5-8 mb deeper we would have a even bigger problem on our hands, although I think 1008mb will cut it. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies lower than that with more instability and higher shear values though; just considereding the close range model bump we typically see.
 
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