Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

[JBishopwx]

Thread for the severe weather threat during this time frame.

 

[KevinH]

Wait… what prompted this thread? I missed something lol

 

[KevinH]

Wait… what prompted this thread? I missed something lol

Never mind ha

 

[JBishopwx]

Thursday 12.26.24:

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The top four cips analogs for Saturday were impressive! The 00z GEFS members came out balling like they’ve yet to ball with the potential. Let’s see if we can keep and hold the trend toward the more favorable setup for Saturday.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

12z NAM 3km

 

[JBishopwx]

Saturday

 

[AJS]

Thursday 12.26.24:
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Right in the bullseye.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[JPWX]

Level 3 Enhanced Risk with 10% SIG hatch tornado probability for Houston today. Tornado Watch coming by early afternoon per latest MCD

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

The FV3 supercell printer has been plugged in

 

[AJS]

Had a feeling they would go Enhanced. Debating if I should get in my vehicle and chase today. Most likely will as the parameters don’t look too dangerous and would love to get some footage.

 

[JPWX]

Had a feeling they would go Enhanced. Debating if I should get in my vehicle and chase today. Most likely will as the parameters don’t look too dangerous and would love to get some footage.

Just don't be like me and end up getting behind a tornado that would end up passing 2 miles away from my house on my GoPro instead of lightning. I wish I could chase more, but I have to pick my storms carefully. Most of the time I stay home and keep my family/friends advised and let the GoPro do the work for capturing lightning.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS values are eye-popping considering where confidence sat a few days ago. Potent late-night threat for MS/W AL late Saturday into Sunday. Threat may continue into eastern AL and GA Sunday, but less clear how the threats will look by that time frame. Anyone from East TX to NW AL should be keeping a close eye on Saturday. Houston could be in for a rough day today as well.

 

[JPWX]

CIPS values are eye-popping considering where confidence sat a few days ago. Potent late-night threat for MS/W AL late Saturday into Sunday. Threat may continue into eastern AL and GA Sunday, but less clear how the threats will look by that time frame. Anyone from East TX to NW AL should be keeping a close eye on Saturday. Houston could be in for a rough day today as well.
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O yes. Nothing like a late night severe weather/tornado threat for MS. LOL! Pour me more coffee sir

 

[AJS]

CIPS values are eye-popping considering where confidence sat a few days ago. Potent late-night threat for MS/W AL late Saturday into Sunday. Threat may continue into eastern AL and GA Sunday, but less clear how the threats will look by that time frame. Anyone from East TX to NW AL should be keeping a close eye on Saturday. Houston could be in for a rough day today as well.
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Yeah… A little bit concerned for the Houston area today. Hoping nothing bad happens. The environment does seem a bit volatile today.

 

[AJS]

O yes. Nothing like a late night severe weather/tornado threat for MS. LOL! Pour me more coffee sir

I will never forget watching the March 24 event live and seeing how dangerously close the Amory Tornado came to making a direct impact on Smithville. So thankful you and others were thankfully ok.

 

[JPWX]

I will never forget watching the March 24 event live and seeing how dangerously close the Amory Tornado came to making a direct impact on Smithville. So thankful you and others were thankfully ok.

Yes. My nerves were through the roof that night. I had trouble sleeping late that night/early morning of the 25th just thinking about what Amory would look like and having flashbacks to 2011. Plus wondering if I had done my best.

 

[AJS]

Yes. My nerves were through the roof that night. I had trouble sleeping late that night/early morning of the 25th just thinking about what Amory would look like and having flashbacks to 2011. Plus wondering if I had done my best.

Based on the radar imagery, I had absolutely no doubt that it was going to be the most intense of the night. Thankfully the damage seemed to a lot less intense than what the radar imagery showed. Regardless, still a tragic event which killed 2 people.

 

[cincywx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme west central Louisiana
East central and southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1135 AM until
700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected across
southeast Texas through the afternoon/evening, and storms will
spread northeastward into east central Texas. The storm environment
will support the potential for several tornadoes, including a strong
(EF2+) tornado or two, along with large hail of 1-2 inches in
diameter and isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph.

70/40 probs