A very sneaky substantial tornado threat for western Oklahoma today
Particularly in southwest OK, convergence along the dryline will be almost nonexistent, however, forcing will actually be quite strong since the edge of the trough will be right next to it.
The forcing mechanism fully arrives at around 8pm. Look at how it progresses which does eventually initiate convection.
The hrr has repeatedly initiated spotty convection ahead of the dryline as a result. If the forcing mechanism can over come the weak inversion layer and dry vertical profile, expect sig or even VI tors. The kinematics in this environment are the highest of this year, Im seeing modeled STP exceeding 13 around the area in question.
There’s a real possibility this can get ugly.
Or the more likely scenario that this will be a blue sky bust idk..