Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

[Grand Poo Bah]

A very sneaky substantial tornado threat for western Oklahoma today
Particularly in southwest OK, convergence along the dryline will be almost nonexistent, however, forcing will actually be quite strong since the edge of the trough will be right next to it.
The forcing mechanism fully arrives at around 8pm. Look at how it progresses which does eventually initiate convection.

The hrr has repeatedly initiated spotty convection ahead of the dryline as a result. If the forcing mechanism can over come the weak inversion layer and dry vertical profile, expect sig or even VI tors. The kinematics in this environment are the highest of this year, Im seeing modeled STP exceeding 13 around the area in question.

There’s a real possibility this can get ugly.
Or the more likely scenario that this will be a blue sky bust idk..

It's amazing to me that this area was downgraded to a 5% Cig 1. Especially with the CAMs agreeing on the cap breaking a few isolated cells blowing up. What are we even doing at this point?

 

[TornadoFan]

SPC about 20 minutes late with their latest day 1 outlook.

 

[Muwx]

SPC about 20 minutes late with their latest day 1 outlook.

Minimal changes.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Here. Watch this

 

[Maxis_s]

@Maxis_s probably best to stop criticising the NWS in a immature manner. That post you made regarding the PDS in Arkansas caught a lot of flack last night...

The way I worded it was fairly immature but I do think a radar indicated PDS was unnecessary for that storm.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The way I worded it was fairly immature but I do think a radar indicated PDS was unnecessary for that storm.

Yeah, the wording was my main problem. Can't say I would've not been confused with a RI PDS for that.

 

[Maxis_s]

Blocking overpasses like this should become a crime in these areas honestly. It's absolutely absurd.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

A very sneaky substantial tornado threat for western Oklahoma today
Particularly in southwest OK, convergence along the dryline will be almost nonexistent, however, forcing will actually be quite strong since the edge of the trough will be right next to it.
The forcing mechanism fully arrives at around 8pm. Look at how it progresses which does eventually initiate convection.

The hrr has repeatedly initiated spotty convection ahead of the dryline as a result. If the forcing mechanism can over come the weak inversion layer and dry vertical profile, expect sig or even VI tors. The kinematics in this environment are the highest of this year, Im seeing modeled STP exceeding 13 around the area in question.

There’s a real possibility this can get ugly.
Or the more likely scenario that this will be a blue sky bust idk..

Could be a pretty nasty scenario if supercells fire. East OK and this..

 

[Maxis_s]

Wow, that was fast. EF3 can't be ruled out

 

[Kds86z]

 

[speedbump305]

Wow, that was fast. EF3 can't be ruled out

I actually didn’t expect a prelim HE EF-2 from DFW. They are known for being pretty conservative with their ratings for tornadoes. EF3 is definitely on the table.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Beachwalker]

Tonight gonna struggle due to lack of lower level moisture? Temp-Dew Pt spread a little too large? Maybe until after dark?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

I'd be burning south to Duncan, OK, right now. Like the dryline bulge there, and the params will be great if a storm fires.

 

[akt1985]

The first Watch of this afternoon (Sunday) is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern Kansas, which includes the Kansas City metro area.