Ozonelayer
Member
Okay, yeah a CIG2 seems more likely than a MDT. Just was confused about the CIG levels for a second.
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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
GXSC
Member
It is so warm out that for the first time this year I have opened the window, even if the skies are gloomy and yellowish (but with only a light drizzle).
On one hand, it is nice to hear birds chirping and let nature in. On the other hand, I'm hoping I don't get slabbed exactly 5-6 hours from now.
On one hand, it is nice to hear birds chirping and let nature in. On the other hand, I'm hoping I don't get slabbed exactly 5-6 hours from now.
On one hand, I've got time to prepare. On the other, I hope cap holds and storms don't have much to work with
Grand Poo Bah
Member
No kidding it's 67 degrees where i'm at right now. that's 33 degrees above average. Dew point of 61, as well. If the sun comes out i'm gonna start getting real worried.
GXSC
Member
I'm at 62F, the high for today is supposed to be 68F. KCCI said that if it goes over 70F that's when the tornado potential really goes up (for right now they still say it's limited).
I like to follow local news weathermen over national weathermen, they tend to hype less, are always licensed meteorologists and usually will have direct access to NWS/SPC.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I don't think coverage of long-lived supercells reaches "outbreak" levels, but could see an isolated overachiever somewhat like last night.
Raining again here. Despite SPC's maintenance of the 5%+CIG1 for southern Wisconsin, I don't think we destabilize in time to see much of anything in terms of supercellular activity around here. HRRR is pretty insistent we see a complex of thunderstorms around or shortly before midnight, which may contain an isolated wind/QLCS tornado threat.
CheeselandSkies
Member
That's a big yikes. KFOR is a Nexstar station, not sure what their philosophy behind that is. The owners of the station I work for do not paywall our livestreams for that very reason.
Kds86z
Member
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Yeah agreed and I see gotcha and that’s good
Kds86z
Member
Blue skies
Kds86z
Member
He says it’s 75F having to turn on his AC, didnt expect that
Kds86z
Member
New day 1…
A CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HERE,
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN AN REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FORECAST INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET). THERE ARE SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS, SUCH AS ONGOING
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME THIS
MORNING. SOME SHELTERED HEATING IS ONGOING WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM LAMONT, OK AND TOPEKA, KS SHOW THIS TREND IN
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ENLARGED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG 50 KT
FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FURTHER ENLARGEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS EVENING, AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, AND STP VALUES AROUND 2. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE, TORNADO PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED WITH
THIS OUTLOOK.
A CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HERE,
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN AN REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FORECAST INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET). THERE ARE SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS, SUCH AS ONGOING
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME THIS
MORNING. SOME SHELTERED HEATING IS ONGOING WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM LAMONT, OK AND TOPEKA, KS SHOW THIS TREND IN
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ENLARGED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG 50 KT
FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FURTHER ENLARGEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS EVENING, AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, AND STP VALUES AROUND 2. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE, TORNADO PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED WITH
THIS OUTLOOK.
Kds86z
Member
Now hatched 10% for that northern.
It was 60 when I got up at 530. Talk about a foreboding start to the day
Kds86z
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Falls City, NE, St. Joseph, MO, and the northern suburbs of Kansas City are in the 10%. Kinda surprised they didn't upgrade to a CIG2 but meh.
Kds86z
Member
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIAL THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A
GRADUALLY INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS EVIDENT
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST MO -- WITHIN A ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED
DIURNAL HEATING AMID LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ERODE REMAINING
INHIBITION AND FAVOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON INDIVIDUAL STORM LONGEVITY
INITIALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WITH TIME,
STORMS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, WHERE SHELTERED
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND LARGER CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS
(AIDED BY A 50-KT LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY TOP 18Z SOUNDING) WILL
FAVOR AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WHILE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.
Kds86z
Member
$41,000 raised so far for the tornado victims.
CheeselandSkies
Member
MD out for Oklahoma into north-central TX (including DFW area) as well.