Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

[Central Ohio Wx]

Man, I'm gonna be hyperbolic for a sec and say there's a chance this becomes known as the Broyles outbreak, because he might've been right. I am straight up alarmed by these most recent model runs.

Check out these soundings (scroll right, I added labels for location). The thing that has me convinced is the high percentage of tornadic analogs with these soundings.

If there's anything the past year has shown me, it's that Broyles can see the future.

 

[speedbump305]

It feels absolutely disgusting in Justin, TX right now. Sun is out and it’s so muggy and humid.

 

[Kds86z]

If there's anything the past year has shown me, it's that Broyles can see the future.

I wish he was working today..

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If there's anything the past year has shown me, it's that Broyles can see the future.

What did he say? Did I miss something?

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[eep]

Saw some concerns about early initiation but it looks like the environment has cleaned itself out extremely efficiently. This may be an incredibly long day.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Not to start anything but I thought I would share

 

[slenker]

Is it too late to upgrade to a moderate risk? Starting to think it may be warranted - with some of the soundings I'm seeing, I feel like a CIG2 tornado threat is not outside the realm of possibility here.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

18Z RAP just came out and it agrees with this tweet spot on. This is right over Wichita. I included southern Kansas and Southern Oklahoma as well. The situation is escalating RAPidly (hehe)

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Is it too late to upgrade to a moderate risk? Starting to think it may be warranted - with some of the soundings I'm seeing, I feel like a CIG2 tornado threat is not outside the realm of possibility here.

I was just thinking the exact same thing about the Cig2. All of these soundings are well into EF3 range.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Wouldn’t cig2 still be enhanced risk

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ozonelayer]

Is it too late to upgrade to a moderate risk? Starting to think it may be warranted - with some of the soundings I'm seeing, I feel like a CIG2 tornado threat is not outside the realm of possibility here.

Maybe at 2000z? I think it's warranted by now. There is an entirely real and non-ignorable chance that this turns out to be a tornado outbreak.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Definitely think we get a sigtor today out of this. How many and where at still seems to be anyone's guess though.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Kds86z]

Maybe at 2000z? I think it's warranted by now. There is an entirely real and non-ignorable chance that this turns out to be a tornado outbreak.

I doubt they’ll upgrade. They usually mention they’re considering it.

 

[Muwx]

Maybe at 2000z? I think it's warranted by now. There is an entirely real and non-ignorable chance that this turns out to be a tornado outbreak.

I could see an expansion of the 10% #, but i do not see any areas where at 15% is warranted.

 

[Kds86z]

I doubt they’ll upgrade. They usually mention they’re considering it.

Unless broyles comes on shift

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

I doubt they’ll upgrade. They usually mention they’re considering it.

The only time I can remember them considering an emergency upgrade was for 3/14 iirc, but as we know now that wasn't pulled in time. Obviously this isn't as volatile as a situation.

A CIG2 would still be in the ENH range, but if they upgrade to a 15% then it would be a MDT. I'm not sure whether that would be warranted anywhere in the risk area though.

 

[Kds86z]