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Severe Weather 2026

00Z model forecasts for tomorrow afternoon. All show convective activity across parts of Alabama moving eastward at this time frame, overlapping significant instability and generally small, slightly-curved hodographs. While it might be tempting to eye the potentially semi-discrete activity as it initiates near the MS/AL state line, in setups like these, most tornadoes tend to come from the mesoscale chaos once things grow upscale into a messy MCS, so would watch for that as the activity moves across northern and central Alabama, possibly into western Georgia.
models-2026080100-f021.refcmp_uh001h.us_se.gifmodels-2026080100-f021.sbcape_hodo.us_se.gif
 
Initiation beginning in NW AL, pretty much in-line with modelling. Should blossom into an MCS over the next few hours before fizzling later this evening.
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