Severe Weather 2026

[Clancy]

00Z model forecasts for tomorrow afternoon. All show convective activity across parts of Alabama moving eastward at this time frame, overlapping significant instability and generally small, slightly-curved hodographs. While it might be tempting to eye the potentially semi-discrete activity as it initiates near the MS/AL state line, in setups like these, most tornadoes tend to come from the mesoscale chaos once things grow upscale into a messy MCS, so would watch for that as the activity moves across northern and central Alabama, possibly into western Georgia.

 

[MichelleH]

Expanded the slight risk.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr is picking up on a QLCS hitting central Alabama tonight. Wonder if we see a upgrade in wind probs

 

[Kds86z]

.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Clancy]

Initiation beginning in NW AL, pretty much in-line with modelling. Should blossom into an MCS over the next few hours before fizzling later this evening.

 

[Clancy]

WW being considered for parts of AL/GA/TN.

Mesoscale Discussion 1818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...northern and central Alabama into northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 012000Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a
trailing cold front late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
gusts may occur and a WW is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery showed a band of
deepening cumulus and initial showers along a trailing cold
front/surface trough stretching from southern Middle TN into
northern AL/MS. South of the primary upper low over the Midwest,
synoptic ascent is rather modest, as is confluence with veered
low-level flow along the lagging surface front. Regardless,
continued heating approaching convective temperatures should erode
the very weak lingering inhibition, with the modest frontal forcing
supporting storm development late this afternoon. Despite poor
mid-level lapse rates, the very warm temperatures and dewpoints in
the mid to upper 70s F are supporting large buoyancy sufficient for
severe storms, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

Most CAM guidance depicts one or more bands of storms developing
along the front, with 20-30 kt of effective shear supporting a few
organized lines/clusters. This would favor some risk for damaging
gusts given high PWATs and water loading of downdrafts. Severe risk
is expected to be focused with the more robust clusters across
north-central AL and eventually into GA and southeast TN this
evening. Given the potential for damaging gusts with these storms a
WW is possible this afternoon.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/01/2026

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1818

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