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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
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KevinH
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I smell a thread coming lol
Globals always underdo moisture return. I just focus more on the 500mb height field at this juncture. The 12z run today on each of the global models definitely looked robust for next weekend/early following week.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
The kinematics are absolutely impressive, even for Winter events but the main reason is why the kinematics are a bit more impressive is this setup could provide a decent storm mode (making the kinematics maximised in use) but even then, it's a bit far to discuss that but things aren't that bad in terms of the shear vectors. gfs is likely underdoing moisture a bit, and i also have questions over more mesoscale day of things. Morning convection may be a issue, and then comes in airmass recovery etc but that is for the close close range. Hodographs are very classic and should organized thermodynamics become clearer, then my concern will be big. Trends will be key but the kinematic point of this is clearly juiced.
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
That trough is a doozy. This one has the makings of a real trouble maker
CheeselandSkies
Member
Taking the 18Z GFS verbatim (looking at hour 150, 0Z 11/16), moisture actually isn't that much of an issue, surprisingly, for the northern end of the potential setup. Upper 50s well into Iowa, which is plenty for a cool season setup. Vertical depth is plenty adequate, too. In fact, on some of the forecast soundings the profile is quite saturated up to above 500mb, making for p***-poor lapse rates which is what kills the instability, not lack of moisture.
The only other thing is the E-W breadth of this moist axis is somewhat narrow, with low 50s out in Illinois and even into northern Mississippi/Arkansas. This would limit the amount of real estate you have for storms to work with. I think part of the problem is the trough off the Atlantic seaboard amplifies at the same time the trough coming into the west does, creating kind of a pinched off ridge with a narrow wavelength between them. If that ridge were a little wider and able to push off the Atlantic coast a little more, you would get southerly winds across the whole Gulf sooner. As it is they appear to remain easterly across all but the western Gulf until early Saturday morning 11/15 (the day of the potential event).
Certainly interesting, though and the first real synoptically-evident setup we've had to track for a while.
The only other thing is the E-W breadth of this moist axis is somewhat narrow, with low 50s out in Illinois and even into northern Mississippi/Arkansas. This would limit the amount of real estate you have for storms to work with. I think part of the problem is the trough off the Atlantic seaboard amplifies at the same time the trough coming into the west does, creating kind of a pinched off ridge with a narrow wavelength between them. If that ridge were a little wider and able to push off the Atlantic coast a little more, you would get southerly winds across the whole Gulf sooner. As it is they appear to remain easterly across all but the western Gulf until early Saturday morning 11/15 (the day of the potential event).
Certainly interesting, though and the first real synoptically-evident setup we've had to track for a while.
joshoctober16
Member
a lot of rotation and funnel clouds happening right near by the volcanic eruption
unsure if this counts as landspouts.
here is a live stream where this is from , still a lot of rotation in the steam / clouds.
joshoctober16
Member
pretty sure this counts as a landspout since its attached to the cloud caused by the volcano.
CIPS picking up on that system for next weekend. Definitely bears watching, but will take some time before we can get a better handle on what we're looking at. Still want to see significantly more model consistency before getting too concerned. Those kinematics off the more impressive runs are quite something, though.
Example of why it's usually not a good idea to latch onto mid-to-long range solutions. Timing, trough longitude and trough shape vary wildly from run-to-run. Still, ensembles seem to be gradually agreeing on something that may be conducive to severe weather. Not sure what happened on the latest run of the GEFS, though. Obviously models aren't showing anything in the way of instability or moisture because they underdo it in cold-season setups, but will still have to see if what return we actually get is meaningful.
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CheeselandSkies
Member
Euro and GFS still pretty far apart with regards to any potential severe threat this coming weekend into early next week. GFS solution would still support some level of threat Sunday-Monday, such as on today's 18Z run. However the general trend, especially on the Euro, seems to be away from a coherent, negatively-tilted trough ejection that would support a widespread, high-end severe threat/tornado outbreak type scenario. Instead, there are a lot of pieces of energy split between two flows that never really phase into one intense jet streak.
Sky_I565
Member
Tonights Euro is nasty for Dixie. Time will reveal
CheeselandSkies
Member
That's almost a full week further out in time, though. I've been concentrating on the setup for 11/15-17, which at one point looked similar to this. However SPC does allude to both systems in this morning's 4-8:
A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late
weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the
South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days.
Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI
NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15
percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS
trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or
mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.
Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest
towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest
Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may
develop around mid-week next week.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
Kds86z
Member
Sky_I565
Member
If this verifies off the 00Z run tonight of the AIFS, then we may be even at this range seeing a favorable pattern for a tornadoic event late next week over the South.
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
GFS puts a interesting grip on next week, essentially showing a consistent svr threat all day but some quiet periods where 700 mb temps keep storms out of play. Favorable kinematics should remain in place for the most part in Eastern TX. Moisture appears to be there PLENTY for this setup, but where your most favorable kinematics are, your thermos are pretty iffy. Good moisture but likely elevated storms. The 20th, while far out, things don't look bad for it. We will see. Going towards Louisiana, your favorable kinematics meet with good thermos. Trends will be monitored, expect changes but it isn't a bad look for svr weather potential
18z Euro one week out is quite something, and this has been showing up for a while now between the other models too. It is still a while out, but this is believable considering the fact that there’s a little primer wave that precedes this. I worry about anything being able to potentially take full advantage this moisture, seems like a powder keg.
SilentShadow87
Member
It's definitely worth keeping an eye on. It could end up being a pretty robust system (it reminds me a bit of 11/4/2022), but the last few have downtrended pretty quickly so I guess I'll believe it when I see it lol.
PS. I really like your R136 profile pic. Nice to see another space fan (I've always loved stargazing).