WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Go to the Significant Tornado Events - Global Edition for further. Appears to have exhibited horizontal vortices from people I've heard that seen the video, I'll try get it and send it in the thread
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
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KevinH
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Dixie has awakened… right on cue.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Very bad damage from a tornado in Brazil earlier this afternoon, borderline vio.
Sidenote: Love the new RadarOmega update especially with the auto recalculate option for Storm track
Could have a few severe storms today over Georgia as this front pushes through. Instability is fairly strong for the season (>2,000 j/kg), and there may be just enough shear in the lower levels to possibly get a couple low-topped supercells going. A few storms have developed around the Atlanta metro and a couple show some very weak, transient rotation. These are always particularly interesting little setups to me, scenarios on the very fringe of what mother nature can work with.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
This is a fantasy run from the 12z GFS just to keep in mind but just showing for giggles
This is at 12z on the 21st, and GFS randomly decides that a pretty much near all day svr event takes place with actually robust shear + instability later on but I expect this to disappear next run or if it doesn't, it'll just die off the next run after lol.
This is at 12z on the 21st, and GFS randomly decides that a pretty much near all day svr event takes place with actually robust shear + instability later on but I expect this to disappear next run or if it doesn't, it'll just die off the next run after lol.
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KevinH
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May have something before the 21st. "Possible severe" can change quickly in November in the South. From this morning's SPC discussion...
..DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid
to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching
parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD,
run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of
spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough
approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated
by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the
past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the
Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio
Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights
from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS
appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of
these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of
continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a
closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on
D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over
the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to
Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for
indications of possible severe, probably focused in the
South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.
..DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid
to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching
parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD,
run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of
spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough
approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated
by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the
past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the
Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio
Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights
from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS
appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of
these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of
continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a
closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on
D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over
the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to
Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for
indications of possible severe, probably focused in the
South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.
- Thread starter
- #7,469
KevinH
Member
Anyone catch the last half of the latest D4-8 from today? Could be something to watch?
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD, run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday.
This is well illustrated by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over the Great Plains in this GFS run.
For this forecast, will upgrade to Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for indications of possible severe, probably focused in the South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.
..Grams.. 11/09/2025
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD, run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday.
This is well illustrated by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over the Great Plains in this GFS run.
For this forecast, will upgrade to Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for indications of possible severe, probably focused in the South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.
..Grams.. 11/09/2025
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KevinH
Member
DANGIT @MichelleH!!! You @Clancy’ied me LOL!!!!!
But seriously… Will be interesting to see what happens. Tis the (severe) season
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Seems like next week will set up some svr potential although how potent is to be seen. Models have improved on trough geometry and as a result, moisture return could be a bit better with this system. GFS however displaces your best kinematic potential but trends need to be watched.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Well, that is certainly a interesting look. Thermodynamics wouldn't favor convective initiation but LLJ seems to be stinging the whole day and when instability begins to comes in, a around 40 kt LLJ with these kinematics in Eastern TX set up food for thought. Trends need to be closely monitored.
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AJS
Member
I’m monitoring this pretty closely.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
With the upgrade of the Rio Bonito Iguaca tornado to F4, this makes the 2025 tornado season the most violent since 2014. Seven F/EF4+ tornadoes have been confirmed, which is a number that hasn't been seen in almost a decade.
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KevinH
Member
I am only seeing 6 worldwide for 2025?
March 14 2025 United States Arkansas, Missouri
March 14 2025 United States Arkansas
March 15 2025 United States Louisiana, Mississippi
May 16 2025 United States Illinois
May 16 2025 United States Kentucky
Nov 7 2025 Brazil Paraná
Which one is Wikipedia missing? lol
Kds86z
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You’re missing Enderlin
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I noticed this period as potential while it was further out. The GFS and a lot of other globals were aggressive in prior runs, but then lost it and now have brought it back to past form. The change from yesterday’s to today’s CSU-MLP severe probability forecast for Saturday 11/15 shows it well. The 12z EURO, UK, ICON runs today solidify the trend with a serious tone.
18z Operational GFS 500 mb map, from hour ~120 to hour ~170. The kinematics are absolutely incredible, but as is usual with autumn/winter severe events, moisture remains the big question mark. As of now the dewpoints seem unimpressive, but I do believe that the globals are underdoing it at this range. We'll see though.
