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Severe Weather 2025

Globals always underdo moisture return. I just focus more on the 500mb height field at this juncture. The 12z run today on each of the global models definitely looked robust for next weekend/early following week.
 
The kinematics are absolutely impressive, even for Winter events but the main reason is why the kinematics are a bit more impressive is this setup could provide a decent storm mode (making the kinematics maximised in use) but even then, it's a bit far to discuss that but things aren't that bad in terms of the shear vectors. gfs is likely underdoing moisture a bit, and i also have questions over more mesoscale day of things. Morning convection may be a issue, and then comes in airmass recovery etc but that is for the close close range. Hodographs are very classic and should organized thermodynamics become clearer, then my concern will be big. Trends will be key but the kinematic point of this is clearly juiced.
 
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