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Severe Weather 2025

KakashiHatake2000 said:
Click to expand...

first time ive seen new brunswick canada in a 2+ % risk from this....

1751538621634.png
1751538800239.png
a lot of 3cape here however hodo shape is strange.... (looks like a question mark)

when the LCL shows as less then 0.2 km it could lead into a too much mess issue.

and when looking at the future forcast a huge QLSC seems to form for north west new brunswick ...

interestingly it seems more like south east new brunswick has the better potential

(SIG TOR)
1751538231907.png

(3cape)
1751538712115.png

interestingly this seems to be the same location as that possible debris ball from a supercell on a boundary a week ago.


the north west seems to have better 3cape , however a huge QLSC seems to form there with no lone cells
1751538321098.png
however i do notice a few lone cells seem to form in south east parts (near moncton)

1751538511334.png

also very high 3cape and in the Hybrid range.

its to note this far east south east part of Canada is where the furthest intense north American tornado happened

1879 Bouctouche tornado - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
Click to expand...

1751539165173.png
as for ND USA , sounding is very good however the 3cape is low , and the CINH is higher then the 3cape.

i notice nothing seems to even try to form in this area for the next 18 hours...

there only ever seems to be one cell
1751539292956.png
here is the sounding...
1751539341443.png
looks a bit like dickens , however less cape , and less shear.

1751539387235.png

pretty much i don't see any classic supercell tornadoes forming at the right spot... however ... there could be a small chance of a hybrid from this lone cell , and if one does form... its going to be one heck of a tornado again....
 
joshoctober16 said:
View attachment 44776
as for ND USA , sounding is very good however the 3cape is low , and the CINH is higher then the 3cape.

i notice nothing seems to even try to form in this area for the next 18 hours...

there only ever seems to be one cell
View attachment 44777
here is the sounding...
View attachment 44778
looks a bit like dickens , however less cape , and less shear.

View attachment 44779

pretty much i don't see any classic supercell tornadoes forming at the right spot... however ... there could be a small chance of a hybrid from this lone cell , and if one does form... its going to be one heck of a tornado again....
Click to expand...

1751555111254.png

overall not looking too good for tornadoes (Hybrid one is the right one)
 
joshoctober16 said:
first time ive seen new brunswick canada in a 2+ % risk from this....

View attachment 44773
View attachment 44775
a lot of 3cape here however hodo shape is strange.... (looks like a question mark)

when the LCL shows as less then 0.2 km it could lead into a too much mess issue.

and when looking at the future forcast a huge QLSC seems to form for north west new brunswick ...

interestingly it seems more like south east new brunswick has the better potential

(SIG TOR)
View attachment 44770

(3cape)
View attachment 44774

interestingly this seems to be the same location as that possible debris ball from a supercell on a boundary a week ago.


the north west seems to have better 3cape , however a huge QLSC seems to form there with no lone cells
View attachment 44771
however i do notice a few lone cells seem to form in south east parts (near moncton)

View attachment 44772

also very high 3cape and in the Hybrid range.

its to note this far east south east part of Canada is where the furthest intense north American tornado happened

1879 Bouctouche tornado - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
1751555827531.png

well from these old soundings the south east new Brunswick seems to be the best spot.

VTP is a bit high

(if your wondering CVTP is a corrected VTP , that has no overflow issues and takes into account moister)
 
jiharris0220 said:
Here’s an absolutely amazing video by the “Tornado Forensics” channel, apparently this is only his second and third tornado.
For those who want to relive the time of the VHS.

Click to expand...


Since I grew up with it, I like the VHS aesthetic (up to a point) and even if it's not the thing that goes "viral" anymore I try to emulate the style of chasers from that era, such as keeping about one mile as the rule of thumb for as close as you'd want to get to a tornado, minimal (and not screamed) narration, etc.

However, that doesn't mean I'm sorry my Keota and Arnett footage is in 1080p HD and 4K, respectively (shot with the same camera but I wasn't using the 4K mode in early 2023 due to hard drive space and computer processing limitations).
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Since I grew up with it, I like the VHS aesthetic (up to a point) and even if it's not the thing that goes "viral" anymore I try to emulate the style of chasers from that era, such as keeping about one mile as the rule of thumb for as close as you'd want to get to a tornado, minimal (and not screamed) narration, etc.

However, that doesn't mean I'm sorry my Keota and Arnett footage is in 1080p HD and 4K, respectively.
Click to expand...
Not zero-metering tornadoes for the views? Blasphemy!
 
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