Severe Weather 2025

[Shakespeare 2016]

I'm not saying it reached EF5 intensity. And I admit that the structure - that is, if you went by structure alone - is no worse than EF3.

But when you put everything together, EF4. Not more, not less.

OK, but it certainly was violent. It was one hell of a drillbit tornado to say the least although.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[joshoctober16]

first time ive seen new brunswick canada in a 2+ % risk from this....



a lot of 3cape here however hodo shape is strange.... (looks like a question mark)

when the LCL shows as less then 0.2 km it could lead into a too much mess issue.

and when looking at the future forcast a huge QLSC seems to form for north west new brunswick ...

interestingly it seems more like south east new brunswick has the better potential

(SIG TOR)


(3cape)


interestingly this seems to be the same location as that possible debris ball from a supercell on a boundary a week ago.


the north west seems to have better 3cape , however a huge QLSC seems to form there with no lone cells

however i do notice a few lone cells seem to form in south east parts (near moncton)



also very high 3cape and in the Hybrid range.

its to note this far east south east part of Canada is where the furthest intense north American tornado happened

1879 Bouctouche tornado - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[joshoctober16]

as for ND USA , sounding is very good however the 3cape is low , and the CINH is higher then the 3cape.

i notice nothing seems to even try to form in this area for the next 18 hours...

there only ever seems to be one cell

here is the sounding...

looks a bit like dickens , however less cape , and less shear.



pretty much i don't see any classic supercell tornadoes forming at the right spot... however ... there could be a small chance of a hybrid from this lone cell , and if one does form... its going to be one heck of a tornado again....