Severe Weather 2025

[Shakespeare 2016]

I'm not saying it reached EF5 intensity. And I admit that the structure - that is, if you went by structure alone - is no worse than EF3.

But when you put everything together, EF4. Not more, not less.

OK, but it certainly was violent. It was one hell of a drillbit tornado to say the least although.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[joshoctober16]

first time ive seen new brunswick canada in a 2+ % risk from this....



a lot of 3cape here however hodo shape is strange.... (looks like a question mark)

when the LCL shows as less then 0.2 km it could lead into a too much mess issue.

and when looking at the future forcast a huge QLSC seems to form for north west new brunswick ...

interestingly it seems more like south east new brunswick has the better potential

(SIG TOR)


(3cape)


interestingly this seems to be the same location as that possible debris ball from a supercell on a boundary a week ago.


the north west seems to have better 3cape , however a huge QLSC seems to form there with no lone cells

however i do notice a few lone cells seem to form in south east parts (near moncton)



also very high 3cape and in the Hybrid range.

its to note this far east south east part of Canada is where the furthest intense north American tornado happened

1879 Bouctouche tornado - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[joshoctober16]

as for ND USA , sounding is very good however the 3cape is low , and the CINH is higher then the 3cape.

i notice nothing seems to even try to form in this area for the next 18 hours...

there only ever seems to be one cell

here is the sounding...

looks a bit like dickens , however less cape , and less shear.



pretty much i don't see any classic supercell tornadoes forming at the right spot... however ... there could be a small chance of a hybrid from this lone cell , and if one does form... its going to be one heck of a tornado again....

 

[OH-IOan]

Wait, do we not have a wildfire thread? I’m a bit surprised, should I start one or is there an existing one I don’t see?

 

[joshoctober16]

powerful supercell in maine , rotation is picking up.

 

[joshoctober16]

View attachment 44776
as for ND USA , sounding is very good however the 3cape is low , and the CINH is higher then the 3cape.

i notice nothing seems to even try to form in this area for the next 18 hours...

there only ever seems to be one cell
View attachment 44777
here is the sounding...
View attachment 44778
looks a bit like dickens , however less cape , and less shear.

View attachment 44779

pretty much i don't see any classic supercell tornadoes forming at the right spot... however ... there could be a small chance of a hybrid from this lone cell , and if one does form... its going to be one heck of a tornado again....

overall not looking too good for tornadoes (Hybrid one is the right one)

 

[joshoctober16]

first time ive seen new brunswick canada in a 2+ % risk from this....

View attachment 44773
View attachment 44775
a lot of 3cape here however hodo shape is strange.... (looks like a question mark)

when the LCL shows as less then 0.2 km it could lead into a too much mess issue.

and when looking at the future forcast a huge QLSC seems to form for north west new brunswick ...

interestingly it seems more like south east new brunswick has the better potential

(SIG TOR)
View attachment 44770

(3cape)
View attachment 44774

interestingly this seems to be the same location as that possible debris ball from a supercell on a boundary a week ago.


the north west seems to have better 3cape , however a huge QLSC seems to form there with no lone cells
View attachment 44771
however i do notice a few lone cells seem to form in south east parts (near moncton)

View attachment 44772

also very high 3cape and in the Hybrid range.

its to note this far east south east part of Canada is where the furthest intense north American tornado happened

1879 Bouctouche tornado - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

well from these old soundings the south east new Brunswick seems to be the best spot.

VTP is a bit high

(if your wondering CVTP is a corrected VTP , that has no overflow issues and takes into account moister)

 

[joshoctober16]

Sig Wind has been added for ND

 

[lurker]

That 5% over WI/MN/IA/IL has to be the most circle-looking circle I've seen on an SPC map in a while.

 

[joshoctober16]

one heck of a supercell in new Brunswick Canada , no tight rotation yet.

 

[joshoctober16]

my god the ESP is so high at over 8+

a new area to watch for tornadoes.

 

[joshoctober16]

View attachment 44806
my god the ESP is so high at over 8+

a new area to watch for tornadoes.

talking about this spot , it just got a tornado warning , and might of had a tornado that was unwarn , tight couplet and cc drop

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

it is tornado warned now im guessing thats the one in new york

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I would not mind a flood based thread for well rainfall events

 

[joshoctober16]

looks like a tornado happend in PEI canada



there is no tornado warning at all



its now moving into the sea.

 

[joshoctober16]

might have twin waterspouts