Severe Weather 2025

[UncleJuJu98]

And also don't sleep on Wednesday. SPC is now hinting at a possible threat on Wednesday too.

Yeah wensday looks interesting, in a sense that event primes the atmosphere some before Friday.

 

[MichelleH]

12z GFS Takeaways:
1. Surface Based Cape is not as impressive as yesterday's 18z run, but that's to be expected.
2. How low can you go? 12z GFS now has a 968mbar low over Kansas by Friday.
3. 500mb level looks very potent by next Friday.
4. 12z depicting 120kt bulk shear value over Northeast MS by Sunday. By far the highest bulk shear I've seen in these parts in a while.

Summary:
Tight pressure gradient leading to Wind Advisories/High Wind Watches/Warnings over a widespread area. Just like with the most recent system. Multiple rounds of storms leading to flash flooding and severe weather/tornado outbreak.

I don't like the fact there will high gradient winds like last time that led to multiple power outages. Power outages plus tornado outbreak...yeah, sick feeling is back.

 

[ColdFront]

12z GFS Takeaways:
1. Surface Based Cape is not as impressive as yesterday's 18z run, but that's to be expected.
2. How low can you go? 12z GFS now has a 968mbar low over Kansas by Friday.
3. 500mb level looks very potent by next Friday.
4. 12z depicting 120kt bulk shear value over Northeast MS by Sunday. By far the highest bulk shear I've seen in these parts in a while.

Yeah, cape values aside and it’s only one model run… but seeing potential surface based instability all the way up into northern Iowa and as far east as Central Indiana Friday afternoon is pretty interesting. Could be a sneaky setup up there, especially around the triple point.

And you have the 500 MB jet start to overspread directly over that area.

 

[JPWX]

I don't like the fact there will high gradient winds like last time that led to multiple power outages. Power outages plus tornado outbreak...yeah, sick feeling is back.

Exactly! Plus communicating that plus damaging winds associated with the severe storms is quite a challenge

 

[Clancy]

CSU is now thoroughly picking up on this threat. CIPS putting out some impressively widespread severe analog probabilities. Verbatim, 12Z GFS would be a multi-day severe weather event.

 

[JPWX]

CSU is now thoroughly picking up on this threat. CIPS putting out some impressively widespread severe analog probabilities. Verbatim, 12Z GFS would be a multi-day severe weather event.
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I'll be upping my wording about this going forward. 12z Euro is going be interesting.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I'll be upping my wording about this going forward. 12z Euro is going be interesting.

No doubt. Even the euro is a big event. Though gfs is more bullish …. We see how 12z euro comes in real soon

 

[cincywx]

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the overall expanse here is mind-boggling, and it's only a three day period.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

the fact that legit, all models atp have this is alarming

 

[tornado examiner]

I think this could be it.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

the fact that legit, all models atp have this is alarming

Anxious start seeing ukie

 

[ColdFront]

12z Euro is keeping a lot of the 60s dew points and quality moisture confined close to the coast states vs the impressive warm sector on the GFS on Friday afternoon.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Anxious start seeing ukie

yeaaah, when I saw UKMET my heart skipped a beat

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

a sounding posted in a server, p sure with piv + but heres UKMET!!!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

View attachment 34744
a sounding posted in a server, p sure with piv + but heres UKMET!!!

Jesus. Wow

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Jesus. Wow

yhupp

 

[ColdFront]

12z Euro doesn’t really draw in moisture into Dixie Proper until overnight Friday.

 

[ColdFront]

View attachment 34744
a sounding posted in a server, p sure with piv + but heres UKMET!!!

Pretty to look at, but I don’t trust the Ukmet at all this far out

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12z Euro doesn’t really draw in moisture into Dixie Proper until overnight Friday.

Just bout time event …. But it’s more ominous than 0z even

 

[ColdFront]

Just bout time event …. But it’s more ominous than 0z even

It’s in the weird 7 day range, but timing can make or break an event. I agree though, some of the setups being portrayed could possibly yield significant severe weather.