Severe Weather 2025

[lake.effect]

18z shuffles the deck a bit, but doesn't back down. PDS soundings all over AR, LA, MS for quite a long period of time. Could be a 2 day event.

 

[Clancy]

18Z GFS continues to look rather potent.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

18Z GFS continues to look rather potent.
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at this rate, we will get a spc outlook cuz wow run after run after run has the same stuff

 

[Ledian]

Jeez louise, that storm headed into Jackson looks nasty.

 

[warneagle]

New wrinkle on the 12Z GFS, some of the most ominous forecast soundings are now over central Illinois, northeast of St. Louis. Verbatim would be a severe/tornado threat well into Wisconsin and Iowa with that setup, as well. Synoptically this setup is starting to bear a lot of similarities to past high-end mid-MS Valley March setups like 3/31/23 and 3/12/06.

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The only caveat I see in this sounding is I would look for slightly steeper (>6.5 degrees C/km) 0-3 KM lapse rates/more 3CAPE to be confident in a significant tornado threat. Shear is certainly not going to be a problem.

Yeah 3/31/23 was the thing that started jumping to my mind for me.

…and just like that day I’ll be off Friday morning to get bloodwork and then golfing in the afternoon so I hope that’s not a sign.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Yeah 3/31/23 was the thing that started jumping to my mind for me.

…and just like that day I’ll be off Friday morning to get bloodwork and then golfing in the afternoon so I hope that’s not a sign.

Was that the system we had two separate areas of high risk highlighted ….?

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS pressure of 967mbars and 500mb level for Friday. Someone needs to quit feeding this model Bane's venom. Batman Jokes aside, still appears like a significant to major threat. Here's the 12z Euro 500mb level as well.

 

[JPWX]

Was that the system we had two separate areas of high risk highlighted ….?

It was

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

18z GFS pressure of 967mbars and 500mb level for Friday. Someone needs to quit feeding this model Bane's venom. Batman Jokes aside, still appears like a significant to major threat. Here's the 12z Euro 500mb level as well.

So impressive indeed

 

[JPWX]

If anyone has Pivotal Plus, I would love to see soundings off the 12z Euro for next weekend.

 

[MMWX]

If anyone has Pivotal Plus, I would love to see soundings off the 12z Euro for next weekend.

Does Weatherbell have EURO soundings? I'll pull one if it does.

 

[JPWX]

Does Weatherbell have EURO soundings? I'll pull one if it does.

They do. I forgot about that.

 

[MMWX]

They do. I forgot about that.

Can't select a random point but I'll pull 4-5 from areas and post them.

 

[kcyalater]

alabama breathing a little easier. points west nervous.

 

[MMWX]

They do. I forgot about that.

Unless I'm doing something wrong, looks like the 12Z EURO only extends out to 12Z on the 14th.

So it looks like it's still a day or so out of range.

 

[JPWX]

Unless I'm doing something wrong, looks like the 12Z EURO only extends out to 12Z on the 14th.

So it looks like it's still a day or so out of range.

Yeah I noticed that too after I looked myself on Weatherbell. I thought it went out further than 144 hours. It's not a big deal. Just was curious.

 

[JBishopwx]

If anyone has Pivotal Plus, I would love to see soundings off the 12z Euro for next weekend.

 

[JPWX]

12z Euro is spicy on those soundings.

 

[MMWX]

Soundings 1 and 2: SW MS near Brookhaven/McComb
Sounding 3: NW MS near Tunica (about 25 minutes from my house)

 

[Clancy]

Jackson is currently being attacked by The Blob.