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Severe Weather 2025

While GFS is most aggressive, pretty much all of the models advertise a threat for the Deep South. Euro actually has the deepest moisture of the models across parts of MS and LA. Classic Dixie is probably seeing some kind of threat out of this either way, while the middle MSV is more of a question. SPC's Leitman concurs.
...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...

Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range
guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance
generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough
ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period.
This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface
cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of
the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered
roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat).
Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key
features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe
probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed
in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South
into the Midwest.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2025
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models-2025030812-f168.sfctd-imp.conus.gif
 
Clancy said:
While GFS is most aggressive, pretty much all of the models advertise a threat for the Deep South. Euro actually has the deepest moisture of the models across parts of MS and LA. Classic Dixie is probably seeing some kind of threat out of this either way, while the middle MSV is more of a question. SPC's Leitman concurs.
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MissArkLaTex has been in the bullseye so many times the past few years it seems like.
 
What I'll be watching for is if the moisture makes it into Alabama and isn't some sortve moisture tounge as it moves east. If those winds stay southerly instead of southeastly we will have a good shot of a expansive wamr sector into Alabama as well.
 
tornado examiner said:
So, this event is potentially bi model right?
Click to expand...
There’s a signal on the GFS, but not necessarily yet. The Euro doesn’t agree. I think there are still moisture/timing questions. I just don’t understand how moisture is really only getting depicted as lightly scoured with that lead wave, instead of more heavily, but that’s been consistent on both models.
 
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New wrinkle on the 12Z GFS, some of the most ominous forecast soundings are now over central Illinois, northeast of St. Louis. Verbatim would be a severe/tornado threat well into Wisconsin and Iowa with that setup, as well. Synoptically this setup is starting to bear a lot of similarities to past high-end mid-MS Valley March setups like 3/31/23 and 3/12/06.

gfs_2025030812_156_39.25--89.5.png

The only caveat I see in this sounding is I would look for slightly steeper (>6.5 degrees C/km) 0-3 KM lapse rates/more 3CAPE to be confident in a significant tornado threat. Shear is certainly not going to be a problem.
 
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