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Severe Weather 2025

O just wait. Something will happen when it hits the Monroe County line.
 
Next week we get up into the mid 70s. I expect some sort of system to take advantage of these crazy early Feb temperatures.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Next week we get up into the mid 70s. I expect some sort of system to take advantage of these crazy early Feb temperatures.
Click to expand...
Yep. No doubt
 
SPC is giving subtle hints at a threat evolving during the current Day 4-8 Outlook the last few days and again this morning:
"Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of
both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather.
Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal
pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly
west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the
central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas.

Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and
largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However,
emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period,
in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances
through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave
energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in
correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field
aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at
the surface.

Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period
but particularly through the middle and later stages of the
forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher
theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for
destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for
organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather.

With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of
inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather
potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range
time frames."
 
JPWX said:
SPC is giving subtle hints at a threat evolving during the current Day 4-8 Outlook the last few days and again this morning:
"Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of
both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather.
Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal
pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly
west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the
central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas.

Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and
largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However,
emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period,
in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances
through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave
energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in
correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field
aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at
the surface.

Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period
but particularly through the middle and later stages of the
forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher
theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for
destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for
organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather.

With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of
inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather
potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range
time frames."
Click to expand...
I would not be surprised at all if a potent severe weather setup comes into play given how warm the Southern areas of the United States are. It is never a good thing when it’s in the 80s as the high in Houston in February.
 
The high in Houston on Saturday is forecasted to be 85 degrees. If that doesn’t signal a problem, I don’t know what does.
Even for Houston, that is unusually warm for February.
 
It's implied that a severe weather threat is inevitable because it's gonna turn significantly colder again roughly around or just after Valentine's Day. However, models are virtually in chaos currently trying to figure out pattern. So given this, we're looking at a threat roughly around the 10th.
 

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Model solutions keep hinting at threats but are consistently downtrending/disappearing altogether. Just not enough moisture return out of the GOM in most cases. Definitely some good rains coming our way in the next week or two, but nothing that pops out in terms of severe. Some of the Euro solutions look potentially more interesting with regard to moisture, instability and synoptics, but a lot of it is out in voodoo land. Not complaining though, I've enjoyed the snow and the cold.
1738775682894.png1738775762280.png
 
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