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Severe Weather 2023

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Don't be surprised if a 5% tornado risk for portions of east missippi and west Alabama gets issued. You'll likely have a localized higher risk with any discrete or semi discrete convection or a spin up along the MCS.
 
12Z HRRR UH for tomorrow. Weird little super-localized threat on MS/AL border tomorrow. Small areal coverage and tiny temporal window.
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Clancy said:
12Z HRRR UH for tomorrow. Weird little super-localized threat on MS/AL border tomorrow. Small areal coverage and tiny temporal window.
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The weak low pressure really backs winds and increases localized shear. Pretty sneaky threat. ESPECIALLY if a cell or two initiates near the frontal boundary almost near where a prototypical triple point would be
 
3km cape at 200? In that localized enhanced zone tommorow. Not sure why many people arent talking about this pseudo frontal storms tommorow.
If cells fire along that boundary s environment exists for a decent potential for a tornado threat.
 
Jackson regaring Sunday:


While still some five days out, models are coming into better agreement with severe parameters being favorable for some robust convection over portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. With sufficient deep-layer wind shear (45-55 knots 0-6 km), adequate instability as CAPE values hover around 1500 J/KG, steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-8 C/km 700-500 MB with 27-29 vertical totals), and overall good forcing, and confidence is increasing that a portion of the CWA could be outlooked for the potential for at least isolated severe storms on Sunday. Once again, this is still several days away, and changes in model data, either supporting or against any severe threat, are expected.
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GFS Extended Control, Euro Weeklies Mean, and Euro Weeklies Control 35 to 46 day precipitation anomalies. You can forget about a drought across the Mid-South/Southeast region. The Mississippi River might be flooding by late Spring.
 

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Nothing over-the-top for March but could definitely cause a few issues in AL and MS. Wind fields are pretty wonky-looking in C and N AL. Classic GA wedge seems to keep ATL metro northward out of the action, so hopefully that holds, though SPC has virtually all of MS/AL/GA under at least a marginal risk.
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Clancy said:
Nothing over-the-top for March but could definitely cause a few issues in AL and MS. Wind fields are pretty wonky-looking in C and N AL. Classic GA wedge seems to keep ATL metro northward out of the action, so hopefully that holds, though SPC has virtually all of MS/AL/GA under at least a marginal risk.
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I think for any substantial tornado risk to appear would be if a mesolow of something to back winds more becomes evident. Surface winds are almost parallel to the elongated low veering them pretty good; severely hindering any substantial tornado risk. Maybe a very isolated spin up though.
 
SPC is already hinting at next weekend too
 
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