- Moderator
- #441
CMC, UK, and UM showed significant improvements to the severe threat Sunday with stronger low-level shear.
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Severe Weather 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #442
KevinH
Member
I am just WAITING for the SPC to highlight this weekend lol
When are we gonna get a break lol
JPWX
Member
May LOL!
Look what I found in my Twitter feed today. Surprise!
CheeselandSkies
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tennessee storm chaser
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Next two weeks starting now… better enjoy it before end month …. This weekend not on ship just yet
DetectiveWX
Member
Or April '11, '65, '91, '20 or '57...
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Very zonal flow for this upcoming potential event.
Broader more zonal flow can lead to your better event in the southeast sometimes though.
April 5th 2022 event was almost purely zonal with a shortwave through the base.
Broader more zonal flow can lead to your better event in the southeast sometimes though.
April 5th 2022 event was almost purely zonal with a shortwave through the base.
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Clancy
Member
CentralKyWeather
Member
Next week looks really interesting for the South. Euro and GFS are fairly comparative as well next week.
Kinda wonder how much of gulf dragger the warm front would be if a system materializes
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Still a ways out but I still have a lot of uncertainty about this weekend. Could produce a few warnings but at the moment I just don't see anything in the models to make me think this has significant potential. Its just too early to say for sure.
I've seen March play out like this before and it just seems like this is "The system before the system". I feel like this is just setting the stage for something much more substantial down stream in a week or 2.
We are entering one of the most unpredictable phases of the year.....the meteorological transition from Winter to Spring. Man has been trying to predict this shift since the beginning of time.
No one really has a clue what is going to happen over the next few weeks.
I've seen March play out like this before and it just seems like this is "The system before the system". I feel like this is just setting the stage for something much more substantial down stream in a week or 2.
We are entering one of the most unpredictable phases of the year.....the meteorological transition from Winter to Spring. Man has been trying to predict this shift since the beginning of time.
No one really has a clue what is going to happen over the next few weeks.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Haven't watched through the video yet but it looks like most of his analog years were abysmal if you like severe weather (2002, 2009, 2018). 2012 was pretty slow as well other than March 2. The only one that piques my interest is 1965 which of course had the Palm Sunday outbreak along with a lot of other activity here in the Midwest. Kind of the odd duck out there.
atrainguy
Member
IIRC, his prediction is an above average start to tornado season (March/April), petering out in May, with a good chunk of the action being in traditional Tornado Alley and maybe the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. Sounds similar to the past few years, but with a bit more emphasis on the Plains and Midwest. If it has to tornado, it would be nice to have it tornado in the open plains, rather than the dense woods, swamps, and urban areas of the south. I'm sure the many Southerners on here would appreciate that as well.
It is interesting to me that most of the analogs had a recurring theme of an increase in action in the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. I wonder if my area is gonna see an uptick in activity this Spring/Summer, considering I'm in one of Michigan's tornado hotspots (Genesee County).
- Moderator
- #457
The GFS is back to the better severe setup for Sunday like the other models. I could see this threat trend up further as we approach the day of the event.
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JPWX
Member
Didn't even realize there was severe threat tommorow lol. I gotta get my game back in shape haha
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Yea a friend sent me a TOR sounding from south of Columbus MS for tmrw from latest HRRR.
Had some juicy 3000+ CAPE but wind shear profile wasn't impressive.
Had some juicy 3000+ CAPE but wind shear profile wasn't impressive.
