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Severe Weather 2023

ashtonlemleywx

ashtonlemleywx

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After Sunday.....it appears the next severe potential will be around March 16th-18th. It has the look of a higher end multi day event starting in Arklatex/Oklahoma and pushing across the South. Maybe Arklatex/Oklahoma on March 16th. MS/LA/TN on March 17th. AL, GA, and FL on March 18th.

Latest GFS and Euro both show a strong cold front pushing through with modest moisture ahead of it.
I think this is that "system after the system" I was referring to a few days ago.

A multi day weekend severe event in the South would really bring some storm chasers out of the woodwork.
 
UncleJuJu98

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ashtonlemleywx said:
After Sunday.....it appears the next severe potential will be around March 16th-18th. It has the look of a higher end multi day event starting in Arklatex/Oklahoma and pushing across the South. Maybe Arklatex/Oklahoma on March 16th. MS/LA/TN on March 17th. AL, GA, and FL on March 18th.

Latest GFS and Euro both show a strong cold front pushing through with modest moisture ahead of it.
I think this is that "system after the system" I was referring to a few days ago.

A multi day weekend severe event in the South would really bring some storm chasers out of the woodwork.
Click to expand...
We need to tone this severe weather talk down. And start making some snow maps, I haven't gotten my snow this year.
 
UncleJuJu98

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Late next week looks like maybe a moderate shear low cape event. We all know how those turn out with the models ramping up some as we get closer lol. Something to watch though.
 
UncleJuJu98

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March 17th look pretty interesting for the south. Definetly not a high instability setup though.

I'd keep a close eye on this one
Timing of peak heating may be a big issue with this event
 
UncleJuJu98

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March 17th looks to be confined to the coastal states decent agreement on the overall synoptic setup it seems. The affected region is decent bit away from the low pressure but that doesn't mean a non event. It's a rather large upper level low. Seen plenty of events produce from a low not in your typical placement like the huge non event bust a week or two ago.

A decent difluent flow ahead of the Jetstreak at 200mb with the GFS. It'll likely end up being messy though with lack of any actual dry air in the mid levels or a decent CAP.

Best bet is a potential squall line with the chance of a few tornadoes if the GFS and EURO hold steady.

Won't be a high instability event or a extreme shear event, more so a messy hit or miss event it seems. *( As I say not a high instability event my cherry picked sounding indicated 1600sb cape starting to push into that moderate instability range on a global lol)

Lots of changes to come I would assume though.

A cherry picked sounding from south central Alabama march 17th.

2023031212_GFS_126_32,-87.45_severe_ml.png
 
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UncleJuJu98

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If you were to ask me the low level winds are a bit conservative when it comes to southerly and backed winds especially if the system starts to occlude near the upper peninsula of Michigan or Wisconsin. Great intrigue at this point for a Alabama event. Id expect a uptick in talking about this timeframe moving forward; that is of course if models continue to stick with it's thinking.

A huge concern of mine is a conservative instability output. Gulf waters right off the shore and into the gulf are running about 2-3 degrees warming than they normally do at this time of the year, with a LLJ from this broad system potentially pushing into the gulf it makes me a tad bit nervous, I don't want to pull this into the mesoscale models and a consistent uptrend happen.

Just my current thoughts, don't overlook this time frame for the end of the month timeframe.

Timing and meshing of paramters may become a issue with this system along with a relatively messy storm mode.
 
JPWX

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CheeselandSkies said:
It's just a couple of GFS runs so far (at least that I've seen) and it's 300 hours out, but there's a hint that something could be brewing around the 24th of the month. Details/ceiling will change with every run of course. Something to keep on the back burner for now.
Click to expand...
And right in time for the MS State Severe Storm Symposium. LOL! If something were to happen, it'll be then.
 
Taylor Campbell

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CheeselandSkies said:
It's just a couple of GFS runs so far (at least that I've seen) and it's 300 hours out, but there's a hint that something could be brewing around the 24th of the month. Details/ceiling will change with every run of course. Something to keep on the back burner for now.
Click to expand...

And the other models have features in place through 240hrs that appear to indicate a potential severe threat in the 12-14 day period.
 
T

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UncleJuJu98 said:
SPC mentions holding off on including a risk area for the southeast until moisture extent is consistent. A day 4 outlook is issued for portions of the plains and far western extent of the southeast. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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quality moisture return is going be a problem for next week n half least.... still like the end month going into april for something higher end threat
 
UncleJuJu98

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What the hecks up with the GFS showing a massive blizzard up the east coast and portions of the southeast next week lol. Are we gunna see a lake march winter event?
 
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