Severe Weather 2023

[Austin Dawg]

I know it's waaaaaay out there but the end of the month shows a rather large system spinning up over the Southern plains and start moving east.

 

[JPWX]

FYI the earliest landfalling U.S. hurricane on record is Amanda from May 24th to 29th 1863 with the 2nd earliest landfall from a Hurricane in 1908 making landfall on North Carolina in May. The earliest landfall U.S. tropical storm on record is Ana in May 2015.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A lot of support on ensembles for the time frame for a severe weather event that @Taylor Campbell mentioned potentially a large area

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Should we start giving credence to the GFS solution of a wintery precip threat???? 18z in that favorable position but 12z euro is a no go

 

[amp1998]

I wouldn't, I believe the GFS has been an outlier with that system, but I haven't had a chance to look at the latest. So unless other models start showing what the GFS shows, I would be skeptical.

Should we start giving credence to the GFS solution of a wintery precip threat???? 18z in that favorable position but 12z euro is a no go

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wut! Impressive!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wut! Impressive!

Just imagine if you had a moderate to high instability setup with that. Big OOF

 

[Jbop]

Just imagine if you had a moderate to high instability setup with that. Big OOF

What kind of setup would we be looking at with this?

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

March 23rd-26th will most likely produce some level of severe weather. Impossible to tell how potent right now.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

March 23rd-26th will most likely produce some level of severe weather. Impossible to tell how potent right now.

The extended period looks active with two trough ejections. Thursday the 23rd/Friday the 24th as the first of interest and then Sunday the 26th. Both could serve potent as models have hinted.

 

[Kim30]

The extended period looks active with two trough ejections. Thursday the 23rd/Friday the 24th as the first of interest and then Sunday the 27th. Both could serve potent as models have hinted.

For what areas?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

For what areas?

 

[JBishopwx]

D7/D8 CIPS and CSU output

 

[Austin Dawg]

It's weird just how quickly it went quiet for this time of year. I mean we did have some severe weather with this last system but compared to what we have really been experiencing, it's been relatively quiet. I still think it's ramping back up toward the end of the month in April. It's going to be very interesting.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It's weird just how quickly it went quiet for this time of year. I mean we did have some severe weather with this last system but compared to what we have really been experiencing, it's been relatively quiet. I still think it's ramping back up toward the end of the month in April. It's going to be very interesting.

April going be above average , what I am seeing teleconnections are lining up unfortunately

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Euros ejections and features are better than the GFS. I'd say Mississippi is looking the best for severe at this point. Definitely a watcher

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC has put in an area for next Thursday, but it's for the Southern Plains.

 

[atrainguy]

SPC has put in an area for next Thursday, but it's for the Southern Plains.

 

[Timhsv]

The extended period looks active with two trough ejections. Thursday the 23rd/Friday the 24th as the first of interest and then Sunday the 27th. Both could serve potent as models have hinted.

Here is an interesting perspective attm. All of the West, especially the mountains of coarse for the most part have tremendous snowpak. This should serve as to aid in the cold air/frontal positions to adequately hold the colder air at the 500mb levels and upward to remain longer intact with their eastward movement, and making the setups more volatile coming into Aprils warming trends.
If you'll notice on the 500 MB levels on April 4, 1974 and April 27th, 2011, the upper temp was -32C over Wyoming and -26 on both events.

Its somewhat hypothetical, but I've noticed as I'm sure as some of you have, the big tornado outbreaks always seem to have "colder than normal" levels up upper atmospheric cold air which is really needed just like the warmer and juicier lower levels to promote a more volatile setup.

 

[JPWX]

One thing of other interest is that the preliminary tornado count for March is 37 (as of the 13th). This is the exact same count as March 2010. The snow season at Mammoth Mountain during 2010-11 ended up at 668.5 inches. Their highest snow total on record going back to 1969-70. I agree with @tennessee storm chaser that April could be a very active severe weather/tornado producing month where only a handful of recent years of 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2022 had more than 200 tornadoes in April. One thing that I have just found that @Timhsv alluded to on the California snow pack. Since 2000, using the Mammoth Mountain historic data set, years that have had less than 600 inches of snow have featured less than 200 tornadoes in April. One thing to note depending on one's point of view there is an exception where both 2006 and 2009 ended up having less than 600 inches of snow on Mammoth Mountain whereas you still ended up with over 200 tornadoes occurring during both April's of 2006/2009.