Severe Weather 2023

[ashtonlemleywx]

This graphic doesn't seem like an easy task.

Anyone know how to combine 500mb height/wind with surface dew points.....and overlap them into one image?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Man the pacific jet is on steroids being modeled

 

[JPWX]

So I always do a long range analysis the day after we have severe weather. I always want to know what is next. Just finished today's analysis.
Too far out to see true severe potential, but it looks like we have rain/storm chances on the following dates:

Around January 7-8
Around January 12-13
Around January 16-18

All of these date ranges are supported by GFS and ECMWF.
We are almost in the NAM range for January 7-8....and at the moment it appears to mostly be a rain event with a marginal risk.

Way too far out to know how January 12-18 will play out but it appears there will be a few rounds of activity.

Very Interesting. Looking at the latest 32 to 35 day precipitation anomalies off the GFS Ensemble Extended, CMC Weeklies, and the Euro Weeklies, it definitely looks wet. Wet meaning a battle zone between winter weather and severe weather.

 

[Argus]

About 30 minutes before the storm hit around sunset yesterday, the fog began rolling in. This morning's storm was very wild, reminsence of what the 2013 systems were. They seemed higher in lightning that year. and dariker skies as well

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The past few operational GFS runs and the trend on the GEFS favor a potentially higher caliber type severe weather event around the 16th-17th. This is a nasty look right now so let’s keep an eye on the newer data.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

I agree that Jan 16th-17th has highest potential on GFS runs the past 24hrs......but it is still 250+ hours out. Winter storm season will find a way to surprise us with something between now and then.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I agree that Jan 16th-17th has highest potential on GFS runs the past 24hrs......but it is still 250+ hours out. Winter storm season will find a way to surprise us with something between now and then.

Yeah and it won’t to hard to get a good severe event way the pacific jet is roaring ….

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS as well as the 12z Euro have the look that late next week will need to be monitored for at least a low end severe weather threat. @ashtonlemleywx was the first to mention a threat around the 12th. For now, there's model support. Then the 18z GFS too is showing further potential around the 16th which both @ashtonlemleywx
and @Taylor Campbell have mentioned as well.

 

[KevinH]

18z GFS as well as the 12z Euro have the look that late next week will need to be monitored for at least a low end severe weather threat. @ashtonlemleywx was the first to mention a threat around the 12th. For now, there's model support. Then the 18z GFS too is showing further potential around the 16th which both @ashtonlemleywx
and @Taylor Campbell have mentioned as well.
View attachment 16540



View attachment 16538View attachment 16539

I may not be reading these maps correctly, but this looks to be an MS/AL/GA threat? I renamed the thread I THOUGHT was going to be for today to the potential event on the 16th.

 

[JPWX]

I may not be reading these maps correctly, but this looks to be an MS/AL/GA threat? I renamed the thread I THOUGHT was going to be for today to the potential event on the 16th.

That's what I see it as. A threat for all three states including Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana.

 

[KevinH]

That's what I see it as. A threat for all three states including Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana.

SMH

A friend told me with these maps the threat is to the south and east of where the higher winds are. *shrug*

I created a thread for the 12th for the heck of it

 

[JPWX]

SPC Day 4-8 Discussion today.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The system passage late next week looks to scathe much of the moisture through the Gulf into the western Caribbean. This would help dampen the severity of a system coming the following week.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

We also know how bad global models handle moisture advection in that range. Both GFS/ECMWF usually underplay it this far out.

 

[JPWX]

We also know how bad global models handle moisture advection in that range. Both GFS/ECMWF usually underplay it this far out.

Definitely.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Heres a quick graphic I made that shows potential moisture advection with future model runs.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS trended favorably today for the Jan 12th threat potential.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Heres a quick graphic I made that shows potential moisture advection with future model runs.

View attachment 16544

Like your graphic here, seems like to start off with models always depict moisture lower. Your graphic gives a good view at the potential.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sounding from north Mississippi 3oclock Thursday. Check out the directional shear looking at some isolated convection with those almost near westerlies at 500.

Position of the Low on the GFS is almost your prototypical severe/tornado setup location for a bad day in Mississippi and Alabama. (Belly button of Missouri to around the Memphis area for a low pressure system)

This threat bears watching mesoscale features and details will be ironed out but the general picture here supports a decent severe episode for the deep south.

 

[KevinH]

FYI: There are threads now for both potential threats for the 12th and the 15th-17th.