Severe Weather 2022

[CheeselandSkies]

Now that this system has moved through, any thoughts on the rest if April? Will it continue to be active or will we finally get a severe weather break?

Seems like a bit of a lull is expected after this most recent system*. Perhaps it is taking the more eastward exit @Fred Gossage mentioned in post #267?

*I'm speaking strictly in terms of (potentially) high-end, synoptically evident threats. There still may be some severe threat with the shortwave this coming weekend as SPC mentions in their 4-8.

A met on another forum suggested the next timeframe to watch could be in about 10 days, but I think I'm going to take a break from model watching for a while for some of the reasons @KevinH mentioned above.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Seems like a bit of a lull is expected after this most recent system*. Perhaps it is taking the more eastward exit @Fred Gossage mentioned in post #267?

*I'm speaking strictly in terms of (potentially) high-end, synoptically evident threats. There still may be some severe threat with the shortwave this coming weekend as SPC mentions in their 4-8.

A met on another forum suggested the next timeframe to watch could be in about 10 days, but I think I'm going to take a break from model watching for a while for some of the reasons @KevinH mentioned above.

Yeah day 10 euro already deep trough west setting up moving east . Like you said, I’m taking week break myself , like pull one good system track chase before ends down here my way .

 

[atrainguy]

T'was a busy March, apparently.

March breaks record for most tornadoes

It was a chaotic meteorological transition into spring as March saw the highest number of tornadoes in a single month in U.S. history.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Jacob]

T'was a busy March, apparently.

March breaks record for most tornadoes

It was a chaotic meteorological transition into spring as March saw the highest number of tornadoes in a single month in U.S. history.

abcnews.go.com

I'd have to do some research on it, but it seems to me like we are verifying a lot more QLCS spinups in the last few years with the radar improvements than we would have in the past. Seems like that is inflating the March numbers in general the past few years.

 

[OHWX97]

It certainly looks as if today is turning out to be quite underwhelming compared to expectations that were voiced three or more days ago. Certainly the much-heralded low-amplitude pattern seems to have metastasised into a high-amplitude, messy, blocky pattern with considerable subtropical influence, at least in time for today’s event. When will we finally see a pattern that supports multiple, intense, long-lived tornado families over a wide area, as opposed to some QLCS-generated, semi-discrete strong tornadoes and/or an isolated discrete performer? I am not talking about all-time events like the two Super Outbreaks et al., but I am talking about events like 26 Apr 1991, 4 May 2003, Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, etc. When will we finally see a springtime pattern that generates one of those events again?

I can’t speak for everyone on TW, but I think a lot of us are tired of this same rant from you after every single severe weather event that doesn’t meet your unreasonably high expectations. So what yesterday underperformed (to nobody’s surprise.) Events with high end potential Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all the time. You know this is nothing new. It happens multiple times a year, unlike those once in a decade kind of outbreaks you’re so eager for. Easter 2020 was only two years ago, and December 10, 2021, another historic outbreak, was just months ago. Get a grip.

 

[Jacob]

I can’t speak for everyone on TW, but I think a lot of us are tired of this same rant from you after every single severe event that doesn’t meet your unreasonably high expectations. So what yesterday underperformed (to nobody’s surprise.) Events with high end potential Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all the time. You know this is nothing new. It happens multiple times a year, unlike those once in a decade kind of outbreaks you’re so eager for. Easter 2020 was only two years ago, and December 10, 2021, another historic outbreak, was just months ago. Get a grip.

This, only this was nicer than what I had written out in my head.

 

[KevinH]

I can’t speak for everyone on TW, but I think a lot of us are tired of this same rant from you after every single severe event that doesn’t meet your unreasonably high expectations. So what yesterday underperformed (to nobody’s surprise.) Events with high end potential Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all the time. You know this is nothing new. It happens multiple times a year, unlike those once in a decade kind of outbreaks you’re so eager for. Easter 2020 was only two years ago, and December 10, 2021, another historic outbreak, was just months ago. Get a grip.

Agreed. I think you may speak for more people than you realize lol

To add on to what you just said, I will say this to those who complain: There are reasons (notice the “s” at the end) why the mets that work at the SPC, NWS, local stations, (such as @Fred Gossage), work where they do and the rest of us do NOT. Even with the weather people not getting things right 100%, every single time, the weather is fickle and more complicated than people are willing to realize/acknowledge.

If people are unhappy with the way these “weather people” do their job, then they are free to show us how it is “supposed to be done”. Put in the time, money, work, and effort to GAIN THE EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE they that they do not currently have themselves, and then they can show us how it is “supposed” to be done.

Until all of THAT happens, sit down, shut up, stop complaining, and let the people do the job you currently do NOT

 

[DetectiveWX]

I can’t speak for everyone on TW, but I think a lot of us are tired of this same rant from you after every single severe weather event that doesn’t meet your unreasonably high expectations. So what yesterday underperformed (to nobody’s surprise.) Events with high end potential Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all the time. You know this is nothing new. It happens multiple times a year, unlike those once in a decade kind of outbreaks you’re so eager for. Easter 2020 was only two years ago, and December 10, 2021, another historic outbreak, was just months ago. Get a grip.

I was going to bash him myself; he really should be banned for life. Plus we had the Upper Midwest derecho/tornado outbreak 5 days after Mayfield just to let you know.

 

[buckeye05]

Not trying to play mister moral superiority here, but as much as I’m passionate about tracking these events in real time, I can do without another Easter 2020 or Dec 10-11, 2022 for a while. Outbreaks of that caliber are just upsetting to watch unfold, even if it’s not in your backyard and despite the historic significance. Watching Mayfield happen gave me a sick feeling I haven’t felt since the outbreaks of 2011 or Moore 2013. It’s not something to “root for”.

 

[warneagle]

It certainly looks as if today is turning out to be quite underwhelming compared to expectations that were voiced three or more days ago. Certainly the much-heralded low-amplitude pattern seems to have metastasised into a high-amplitude, messy, blocky pattern with considerable subtropical influence, at least in time for today’s event. When will we finally see a pattern that supports multiple, intense, long-lived tornado families over a wide area, as opposed to some QLCS-generated, semi-discrete strong tornadoes and/or an isolated discrete performer? I am not talking about all-time events like the two Super Outbreaks et al., but I am talking about events like 26 Apr 1991, 4 May 2003, Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, etc. When will we finally see a springtime pattern that generates one of those events again?

I decided to take a look at this from a historical perspective to see how common those types of events are. Using the events you listed to set the criteria, I looked for events since 1950 that had at least 50 confirmed tornadoes and at least 3 E/F4+ tornadoes. Obviously this comes with the inherent biases of historical tornado data (undercounting of total tornadoes, particularly in the pre-doppler era, and the change in rating systems making violent ratings less common overall after 2007), but I think it's a useful perspective.

Even using a relatively liberal definition of "event", and not restricting it to 24-hour periods, I came up with 24 events that produced 50+ tornadoes and 3+ violent tornadoes, or approximately one every three years over the 72-year period. This is obviously an arbitrary standard for a "significant" event, but I wanted to work with the definition according to the examples you provided. As for the truly extreme events that produce 50+ tornadoes and 3+ violent tornadoes in a 24-hour period (roughly), only 14 meet those criteria, or about one every five years.

Obviously these events don't occur at evenly-spaced intervals, they tend to be clustered within periods of two to three years based on the large-scale pattern, but even in periods when the large-scale pattern is favorable, they're rare events. Considering that we just had one on Easter 2020, we're not even overdue for an event of that scale at this point, so suggesting that we're in an unusual situation is ahistorical.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Perhaps it's a generational perspective thing. I don't know if @Casuarina Head is about the same age as me, but I came of age in the 2000s when you had the May 4-10, 2003 sequence, the May 22-30, 2004 sequence, and the Super Tuesday and late May-mid-June 2008 sequence all within 5 years of each other, then a quite active 2010 and the extraordinary 2011, the last 10-11 years just feel quiet by comparison. This is more pronounced for areas north and west of the Dixie Alley states (where it seems there's something significant every winter/spring, even if it's not a large outbreak).

It's a bit frustrating to me as the start of that relative downturn just happened to coincide with the first time I had the financial resources and PTO to chase on my own. Even then, there have been plenty of good chase events (Pilger 2014, Dodge City/Chapman 2016), but I've missed all of those for various reasons and it'd be nice to get more quality opportunities. Plains outbreaks are also less likely to affect populated areas (Moore being an exception, for some reason) than Southeast ones.

 

[maroonedinhsv]

I was going to bash him myself; he really should be banned for life. Plus we had the Upper Midwest derecho/tornado outbreak 5 days after Mayfield just to let you know.

What rule has he broken? Talkweather is a forum - the definition of "forum is "a place, meeting, or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged." That's exactly what this individual is doing. I don't believe he's made any posts that would endanger readers, and he hasn't insulted other posters (he's actually come closer to being on the receiving end than the giving end in this regard). If TW banned every member that posted incorrect info or analysis, the member list would be extremely short.

If you are tired of reading his posts, you can ban him from your vision - simply mouse over his name and click Ignore. That capability exists for a reason.

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Perhaps it's a generational perspective thing. I don't know if @Casuarina Head is about the same age as me, but I came of age in the 2000s when you had the May 4-10, 2003 sequence, the May 22-30, 2004 sequence, and the Super Tuesday and late May-mid-June 2008 sequence all within 5 years of each other, then a quite active 2010 and the extraordinary 2011, the last 10-11 years just feel quiet by comparison. This is more pronounced for areas north and west of the Dixie Alley states (where it seems there's something significant every winter/spring, even if it's not a large outbreak).

It's a bit frustrating to me as the start of that relative downturn just happened to coincide with the first time I had the financial resources and PTO to chase on my own. Even then, there have been plenty of good chase events (Pilger 2014, Dodge City/Chapman 2016), but I've missed all of those for various reasons and it'd be nice to get more quality opportunities. Plains outbreaks are also less likely to affect populated areas (Moore being an exception, for some reason) than Southeast ones.

It could be generational, but it could also be perception or exposure... (hint) I'd wager most people on here aren't very familiar with the weather in northern Europe.

 

[Jacob]

What rule has he broken? Talkweather is a forum - the definition of "forum is "a place, meeting, or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged." That's exactly what this individual is doing. I don't believe he's made any posts that would endanger readers, and he hasn't insulted other posters (he's actually come closer to being on the receiving end than the giving end in this regard). If TW banned every member that posted incorrect info or analysis, the member list would be extremely short.

If you are tired of reading his posts, you can ban him from your vision - simply mouse over his name and click Ignore. That capability exists for a reason.

I agree with this too. His harping on the same thing again and again is annoying, but he doesn't deserve to be banned for it. He's not rude or condescending to other posters about it either.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

One way you know it's a La Nina...is we have been having a LOT of synoptic wind events here in the upper Midwest going back to last fall (including the day of Iowa's December derecho/tornado outbreak). We're having another one today. Wind Advisory in effect for gusts up to 50 MPH. Also on Tuesday, had to grip the wheel tightly all the way to and from my chase target in Iowa, and once near the storm it was hard to tell where the synoptic winds ended and inflow/RFD from the storm began.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Perhaps it's a generational perspective thing. I don't know if @Casuarina Head is about the same age as me, but I came of age in the 2000s when you had the May 4-10, 2003 sequence, the May 22-30, 2004 sequence, and the Super Tuesday and late May-mid-June 2008 sequence all within 5 years of each other, then a quite active 2010 and the extraordinary 2011, the last 10-11 years just feel quiet by comparison. This is more pronounced for areas north and west of the Dixie Alley states (where it seems there's something significant every winter/spring, even if it's not a large outbreak).

It's a bit frustrating to me as the start of that relative downturn just happened to coincide with the first time I had the financial resources and PTO to chase on my own. Even then, there have been plenty of good chase events (Pilger 2014, Dodge City/Chapman 2016), but I've missed all of those for various reasons and it'd be nice to get more quality opportunities. Plains outbreaks are also less likely to affect populated areas (Moore being an exception, for some reason) than Southeast ones.

May 2003 was something else… ef4 hit here 21 fatalities in Jackson …. That was some intense period for couple weeks we went through

 

[warneagle]

I decided to take a look at this from a historical perspective to see how common those types of events are. Using the events you listed to set the criteria, I looked for events since 1950 that had at least 50 confirmed tornadoes and at least 3 E/F4+ tornadoes. Obviously this comes with the inherent biases of historical tornado data (undercounting of total tornadoes, particularly in the pre-doppler era, and the change in rating systems making violent ratings less common overall after 2007), but I think it's a useful perspective.

Even using a relatively liberal definition of "event", and not restricting it to 24-hour periods, I came up with 24 events that produced 50+ tornadoes and 3+ violent tornadoes, or approximately one every three years over the 72-year period. This is obviously an arbitrary standard for a "significant" event, but I wanted to work with the definition according to the examples you provided. As for the truly extreme events that produce 50+ tornadoes and 3+ violent tornadoes in a 24-hour period (roughly), only 14 meet those criteria, or about one every five years.

Obviously these events don't occur at evenly-spaced intervals, they tend to be clustered within periods of two to three years based on the large-scale pattern, but even in periods when the large-scale pattern is favorable, they're rare events. Considering that we just had one on Easter 2020, we're not even overdue for an event of that scale at this point, so suggesting that we're in an unusual situation is ahistorical.

Following up on this, here are the 24 post-1950 events that I found that met the criteria of 50+ tornadoes and 3+ violent tornadoes (the 14 events producing 50+ tornadoes and 3+ violent tornadoes in a 24-hour period in bold):

7-9 June 1953 (Flint-Worcester Outbreak): 50 tornadoes, 6 violent
19-21 May 1957: 67 tornadoes, 4 violent (including the Ruskin Heights, MO F5)
4-6 May 1960: 71 tornadoes, 5 violent (including the Prague, OK F5)
10-12 April 1965 (Palm Sunday Outbreak): 55 tornadoes, 18 violent
19-21 May 1973: 63 tornadoes, 3 violent
3-4 April 1974 (Super Outbreak I): 148 tornadoes, 30 violent
2-3 April 1982: 63 tornadoes, 4 violent (including the Broken Bow, OK F5)
11-13 March 1990: 64 tornadoes, 4 violent (including the Hesston and Goessel, KS F5s)
2-3 June 1990: 66 tornadoes, 7 violent
26 April 1991: 58 tornadoes, 6 violent (including the Andover, KS F5)
14-18 June 1992: 170 tornadoes, 4 violent (including the Chandler, MN F5)
21-23 November 1992: 95 tornadoes, 5 violent
28 February-1 March 1997: 56 tornadoes, 3 violent
15-16 April 1998: 63 tornadoes, 4 violent (including the Lawrenceburg, TN F5)
3 May 1999: 73 tornadoes, 4 violent (including the Bridge Creek-Moore F5)
23-24 November 2001: 67 tornadoes, 3 violent
4 May 2003: 86 tornadoes, 4 violent
5-6 February 2008 (Super Tuesday): 87 tornadoes, 5 violent
16-17 June 2010: 61 tornadoes, 4 violent
25-28 April 2011 (Super Outbreak II): 360 tornadoes, 15 violent
21-26 May 2011: 241 tornadoes, 5 violent (including the Joplin and El Reno EF5s)
18-21 May 2013: 67 tornadoes, 3 violent (including the Moore EF5)
16-18 June 2014: 76 tornadoes, 5 violent (including the Pilger EF4)
12-13 April 2020 (Easter Outbreak): 141 tornadoes, 3 violent

Also note that there are only three "Super Outbreaks", which I define as events which produced double-digit violent tornadoes; the 21-22 March 1952 also produced 11 violent tornadoes, but wasn't included above because it only had 31 confirmed tornadoes (although that's probably significantly undercounted). If we go back to the beginning of useful historical tornado data (around 1880), there are three other events that produced 10+ violent tornadoes: the May 1896 outbreak sequence, the May 1917 outbreak, and the 21-22 March 1932 outbreak, giving a total of seven in the last 140 years, or about one every 20 years. Again, the usual caveats about historical data and rating systems apply, but I think it's a good approximation of the frequency of these extreme events.

 

[MattPetrulli]

I can’t speak for everyone on TW, but I think a lot of us are tired of this same rant from you after every single severe weather event that doesn’t meet your unreasonably high expectations. So what yesterday underperformed (to nobody’s surprise.) Events with high end potential Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all the time. You know this is nothing new. It happens multiple times a year, unlike those once in a decade kind of outbreaks you’re so eager for. Easter 2020 was only two years ago, and December 10, 2021, another historic outbreak, was just months ago. Get a grip.

We just had 3 straight weeks of days with 70+ tor reports (2 of which 100+) and the most active March on record, not sure what else needs to happen

But anyways, think we can get some low-end threats for severe weather multiple days next week, any time for a high-end threat will probably be late next week into week after (if at all). But we'll see.

 

[xJownage]

We just had 3 straight weeks of days with 70+ tor reports (2 of which 100+) and the most active March on record, not sure what else needs to happen

But anyways, think we can get some low-end threats for severe weather multiple days next week, any time for a high-end threat will probably be late next week into week after (if at all). But we'll see.

Those small, localized severe weather events make for better chases and less life impact, I can say I prefer those days to high end, widespread outbreaks.

 

[UK_EF4]

We just had 3 straight weeks of days with 70+ tor reports (2 of which 100+) and the most active March on record, not sure what else needs to happen

But anyways, think we can get some low-end threats for severe weather multiple days next week, any time for a high-end threat will probably be late next week into week after (if at all). But we'll see.

Exactly... we are far above average now for this time of year. We have had 3 outbreaks with more than 70+ tornadoes, within the span of a couple of weeks.