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Severe Weather 2022

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

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    Votes: 7 31.8%

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Whew Lawd, let me see if I can do something to steer this back to topic LOL...

There had been a period in the last week of April that I've had my eye on, especially in the 23rd to 27th timeframe. It was going to be related to the NAO going positive finally, and the MJO cycling through Phases 8 -> 1 -> 2 (the classic severe weather outbreak phases) and even a signal in the Lezak Recurring Cycle for those of you that follow that. However, no matter what happens with the NAO or anything else, we just cannot seem to move away from troughs diving through the Northeast and digging off the East Coast... and causing continental air to get circulated into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and for the upper-level wavelengths to be shortened so that these troughs eject out with the kind of geometry we've seen for the last month. I imagine there will probably be a few more threats of some caliber through the rest of the month, but I don't see anything more serious than what we've already dealt with so far coming down the line anytime in the foreseeable future.

For what it's worth, second-year La Ninas are typically known to be not as violent as their first-year counterparts on average. They can still be active, even hyperactive, but you're much more likely to get large-scale violent events coming out of a first-year episode than a second-year episode. The spring of 1976 would suggest that rare third-year events may behave similarly to first-year episodes in that regard... but we have such a super tiny set of that to look at, that it's not possible to come to a conclusion.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Whew Lawd, let me see if I can do something to steer this back to topic LOL...

There had been a period in the last week of April that I've had my eye on, especially in the 23rd to 27th timeframe. It was going to be related to the NAO going positive finally, and the MJO cycling through Phases 8 -> 1 -> 2 (the classic severe weather outbreak phases) and even a signal in the Lezak Recurring Cycle for those of you that follow that. However, no matter what happens with the NAO or anything else, we just cannot seem to move away from troughs diving through the Northeast and digging off the East Coast... and causing continental air to get circulated into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and for the upper-level wavelengths to be shortened so that these troughs eject out with the kind of geometry we've seen for the last month. I imagine there will probably be a few more threats of some caliber through the rest of the month, but I don't see anything more serious than what we've already dealt with so far coming down the line anytime in the foreseeable future.

For what it's worth, second-year La Ninas are typically known to be not as violent as their first-year counterparts on average. They can still be active, even hyperactive, but you're much more likely to get large-scale violent events coming out of a first-year episode than a second-year episode. The spring of 1976 would suggest that rare third-year events may behave similarly to first-year episodes in that regard... but we have such a super tiny set of that to look at, that it's not possible to come to a conclusion.
Click to expand...
The 70 s seems like it was a very active decade for severe weather . Some large course 74 april
 
Obviously it's way too early to make surefire accurate predictions, but is there any vague sign that "classic" Tornado Alley (Oklahoma, North Texas/Panhandle, Kansas, Nebraska, East Colorado) will be getting decent activity soon, now that we're entering "Tornado Season" for that part of the country? I haven't been keeping tally, but it seems like I keep hearing around here and from storm chasers that with a few exceptions, it's been relatively quiet in those states for several years now, with a lot of the peak activity in Dixie Alley, Central-East Texas, Ohio Valley and parts of the Midwest. Just wondering if there's any sign things may shift over to the Great Plains soon, or if we're still at a "wait and see" stage.
 
Latest 12z GFS and Canadian with a strong system around the 23rd to 25th timeframe. Heavy rain and severe weather will be a good possibility once again for about the same areas as these last previous events.
 

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All the ensembles are showing a negatively tilted trough for late next week. Timing is obviously a significant issue, but it looks like a potential plains event should trends continue.
 
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