Severe Weather 2022

[aujerm]

Small CC drop near Beaumont, MS right now.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like at least two brief but definite tornadoes with the QLCS, one west of and one north of Neely.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

View attachment 13527

Looks like this debris signature was within the vicinity of a Church, houses, business buildings, and chicken houses.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Southern one described as "major damage" per LSR. One injury with northern one.

0851 PM TORNADO BEAUMONT 31.17N 88.92W
04/17/2022 PERRY MS EMERGENCY MNGR

MAJOR DAMAGE AND TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE
DETECTED ON RADAR.

0901 PM TORNADO AVERA 31.30N 88.74W
04/17/2022 GREENE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE AND TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE
DETECTED ON RADAR. ONE INJURY.

 

[Equus]

Two mid to high end EF2s less than two miles long within minutes of each other, quite an impressive QLCS feat

 

[xJownage]

Tomorrow is a major sleeper chase day in NE OK. The latest HRRR run depicts a very odd setup, with what appears to be a N/S oriented Warm Front in NE OK into far SE KS (somebody please correct me if I'm seeing this improperly). The EML is fairly strong further south, but subtle forcing along the front will likely allow for initiation in SE KS. Storm motions are SE which is actually great for spotting. The dynamics are actually very good along the WF, where helicity is greatest.


This sounding is slightly contaminated, and I'm having trouble finding one that's not contaminated on the WF, but this does allow for a decent picture of the low level parameters associated with this setup. It's currently only a 2% tornado probability but I'd be gearing up to chase if I was in the oklahoma area already.'


Meanwhile, the NAM puts a decent dryline setup in central OK. It's definitely a complex forecast but overall OK seems to have some tornado potential for tomorrow. Definitely something to watch for.

 

[xJownage]

Tomorrow is a major sleeper chase day in NE OK. The latest HRRR run depicts a very odd setup, with what appears to be a N/S oriented Warm Front in NE OK into far SE KS (somebody please correct me if I'm seeing this improperly). The EML is fairly strong further south, but subtle forcing along the front will likely allow for initiation in SE KS. Storm motions are SE which is actually great for spotting. The dynamics are actually very good along the WF, where helicity is greatest.

View attachment 13537
This sounding is slightly contaminated, and I'm having trouble finding one that's not contaminated on the WF, but this does allow for a decent picture of the low level parameters associated with this setup. It's currently only a 2% tornado probability but I'd be gearing up to chase if I was in the oklahoma area already.'


Meanwhile, the NAM puts a decent dryline setup in central OK. It's definitely a complex forecast but overall OK seems to have some tornado potential for tomorrow. Definitely something to watch for.

As I say this, there's not a lot of focus for initiation at this point. A mesolow was expected to fire storms in the E OK/E KS areas, but that mesolow is coming in further north than forecast. There's still a chance that this can initiate as there's a vort max currently diving into KS but initiation has become very conditional.

If initiation happens in SE KS/NE OK, there's an explosive environment to work with. I'm skeptical, however.

 

[Jpgood97]

Feels like it’s been abnormally slow for North AL for tornadoes over the past few springs. Is there a website or database that would show the last confirmed tornadoes for Limestone, Lawrence, or Morgan counties?


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[aujerm]

Feels like it’s been abnormally slow for North AL for tornadoes over the past few springs. Is there a website or database that would show the last confirmed tornadoes for Limestone, Lawrence, or Morgan counties?


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I would start with the SPC storm reports summaries. A bit tedious but you should be able to drill in to each year and see a map of annual tornado reports for each state and county.

Annual Storm Reports

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Feels like it’s been abnormally slow for North AL for tornadoes over the past few springs. Is there a website or database that would show the last confirmed tornadoes for Limestone, Lawrence, or Morgan counties?


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Storm Events Database - Search Page | National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

This is a useful database, but it lags a couple of years behind on tornado data.

NWS Huntsville Forecast Area Tornado Database

Tornado across north Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee.

www.midsouthtornadoes.msstate.edu

This one is actually more informative, but it lags even father behind, with the last AL tornado listed as March 2019.

 

[xJownage]

This doesn't seem to bode well for chase season in the plains.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This doesn't seem to bode well for chase season in the plains.

yeah that central plains ridge means buisness this late spring summer. starting to wonder if we are done with severe weather here in dixie and the midsouth area??

 

[JPWX]

I'm not too sure we're finished yet. Parts of central MS saw a Moderate Risk on May 4th, 2021 and a MCS event on May 27th, 2017. Smithville MS had a brief tornado on May 25th, 2015. Our last May Moderate to High Risk for the Mid-South area was on May 25th, 2011. I know in May everyone talks about "Tornado Alley" because it's the normal hotspot but clearly you can have significant severe wx events in Dixie/Mid-South areas in May.

 

[Justin Hindman]

I usually give it until May 10th then stick a fork in the high risk tornado potential events, but then again, anything can happen!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I'm not too sure we're finished yet. Parts of central MS saw a Moderate Risk on May 4th, 2021 and a MCS event on May 27th, 2017. Smithville MS had a brief tornado on May 25th, 2015. Our last May Moderate to High Risk for the Mid-South area was on May 25th, 2011. I know in May everyone talks about "Tornado Alley" because it's the normal hotspot but clearly you can have significant severe wx events in Dixie/Mid-South areas in May.

O yeah I agree with u, May 25 th 2011 was as big setup remember it well …. But the cap was just little to strong for most part if I can remember correctly . Just seems we can’t get out this negative nao setup . Not say we can still have a significant severe event

 

[Taylor Campbell]

O yeah I agree with u, May 25 th 2011 was as big setup remember it well …. But the cap was just little to strong for most part if I can remember correctly . Just seems we can’t get out this negative nao setup . Not say we can still have a significant severe event

Yeah, based on the pattern I'm seeing potential changes early into mid May.

 

[atrainguy]

Got a tornado warning in SW Missouri near Springfield.

 

[xJownage]

Today seems to be uptrending in the TX Panhandle and SW KS. The hodos aren't great, but low level SRH is, and there's definite supercell potential along the dryline. Quite a few chasers are going out there.

I've heard several targeting Amarillo or the caprock.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]