Severe Weather 2022 (31 Viewers)

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 15 68.2%
  • Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

kevinrock

Member
Messages
32
Reaction score
16
Location
Buffalo
Moving northeast... At 100mph?!
e39b5ddcc086c428d15e50c4e9e040db.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U1 using Tapatalk
 
Messages
1,590
Reaction score
1,380
Location
Madison, WI
Seems like most higher-end events are taking place in the Southeast nowadays, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this potential upcoming event in the Plains isn’t all that significant.

Yep. That said, here are a couple of forecast soundings for KS/OK off the 06Z GFS. Now, whether these actually verify as something similar and whether there are sustained storms in the proper mode to take advantage of this environment is another matter.

There's a lot to like about these (if you're a chaser). T/Td spreads aren't too high, critical angles are in the ballpark. The TOR sounding (over OK) actually has more SRH than the PDS TOR sounding (over KS), but more CINH as well which seems to be the difference.
 

Attachments

  • gfs_2022042506_114_35.5--97.75.png
    gfs_2022042506_114_35.5--97.75.png
    242.5 KB · Views: 0
  • gfs_2022042506_114_39.0--97.75.png
    gfs_2022042506_114_39.0--97.75.png
    241.5 KB · Views: 0

SouthFLwx

Member
Messages
43
Reaction score
54
Location
Boca Raton, Florida
Yep. That said, here are a couple of forecast soundings for KS/OK off the 06Z GFS. Now, whether these actually verify as something similar and whether there are sustained storms in the proper mode to take advantage of this environment is another matter.

There's a lot to like about these (if you're a chaser). T/Td spreads aren't too high, critical angles are in the ballpark. The TOR sounding (over OK) actually has more SRH than the PDS TOR sounding (over KS), but more CINH as well which seems to be the difference.
Yeah, seems like it’s another situation where it all depends on if the cap breaks or not (I’m not a chaser btw lol).
 
Last edited:
Messages
1,590
Reaction score
1,380
Location
Madison, WI
Watching Saturday locally due to the last couple runs of the NAM bringing it in range...not a perfect setup but as depicted there is decent mid/upper diffluence and lapse rates over the warm sector, and the left exit region of the 500mb jet is over S WI/N IL. If that verifies, SPC's Day 4 outlook area is way too far south.
 
Messages
688
Reaction score
415
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Watching Saturday locally due to the last couple runs of the NAM bringing it in range...not a perfect setup but as depicted there is decent mid/upper diffluence and lapse rates over the warm sector, and the left exit region of the 500mb jet is over S WI/N IL. If that verifies, SPC's Day 4 outlook area is way too far south.
I’ve seen better shear values also … maybe a bit lacking .
 
Last edited:

Fred Gossage

Member
Meteorologist
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
557
Reaction score
1,915
Location
Florence, AL
Despite the somewhat less than ideal large-scale pattern (mainly related to the persistent -NAO), SPC's 4-8 this morning actually looks seasonably active for the end of April and early May.
The deeper you get into spring, the less the -NAO matters (to an extent). Once you start getting into May, the coastal waters off the Atlantic coast are warmer and support higher dewpoints, and as long as the pattern isn't so highly amplified that you are directly recirculating continental air back into the Gulf, you can still get high enough dewpoints, even if you're pulling from the Atlantic. I don't see anything that stands out as a widespread high-impact day, but I think we will have multiple threats from the Plains eastward, and like Friday's setup, I could see us easily sneaking a violent tornado or two out of what would seem like a lower-end day because of capping concerns or storm coverage.
 
Messages
688
Reaction score
415
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The deeper you get into spring, the less the -NAO matters (to an extent). Once you start getting into May, the coastal waters off the Atlantic coast are warmer and support higher dewpoints, and as long as the pattern isn't so highly amplified that you are directly recirculating continental air back into the Gulf, you can still get high enough dewpoints, even if you're pulling from the Atlantic. I don't see anything that stands out as a widespread high-impact day, but I think we will have multiple threats from the Plains eastward, and like Friday's setup, I could see us easily sneaking a violent tornado or two out of what would seem like a lower-end day because of capping concerns or storm coverage.
Also a negative nao would also keep Dixie and midsouth Tennessee valley regions in play longer this spring, keeping storm track and jet stream further south…. Cape won’t be much problem with it being later spring season
 

Users who are viewing this thread

  • A
  • JPWX
  • David in SW Blount
  • Clancy
  • CheeselandSkies
  • JBishopwx
  • S
  • WesL
Top