Severe Weather 2022

[kevinrock]

Moving northeast... At 100mph?!

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[atrainguy]

 

[TornadoFan]

Minco, Oklahoma and Yukon should be getting their tornado precautions ready.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado warned storm headed right for the OKC metro, including Moore.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]

Meanwhile in Wisconsin and Minnesota

 

[atrainguy]

Looks I MIGHT have some storms to watch out for today (I'm near Flint).

 

[Equus]

Fascinating very clear downburst signature last night at 8:25ish from Norman terminal radar JUST east of the radar site, don't see a rapidly developing low level intense divergence signature this clear very often

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Next Friday and Saturday look somewhat interesting in the Plains/Midwest, could see something similar to the 4/12-13 sequence or the one we just had. Remains to be seen if anything higher-ceiling can take shape.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Seems like most higher-end events are taking place in the Southeast nowadays, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this potential upcoming event in the Plains isn’t all that significant.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Seems like most higher-end events are taking place in the Southeast nowadays, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this potential upcoming event in the Plains isn’t all that significant.

Yep. That said, here are a couple of forecast soundings for KS/OK off the 06Z GFS. Now, whether these actually verify as something similar and whether there are sustained storms in the proper mode to take advantage of this environment is another matter.

There's a lot to like about these (if you're a chaser). T/Td spreads aren't too high, critical angles are in the ballpark. The TOR sounding (over OK) actually has more SRH than the PDS TOR sounding (over KS), but more CINH as well which seems to be the difference.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Yep. That said, here are a couple of forecast soundings for KS/OK off the 06Z GFS. Now, whether these actually verify as something similar and whether there are sustained storms in the proper mode to take advantage of this environment is another matter.

There's a lot to like about these (if you're a chaser). T/Td spreads aren't too high, critical angles are in the ballpark. The TOR sounding (over OK) actually has more SRH than the PDS TOR sounding (over KS), but more CINH as well which seems to be the difference.

Yeah, seems like it’s another situation where it all depends on if the cap breaks or not (I’m not a chaser btw lol).

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Severe weather prospects for the month of May are looking up. This look for next Monday is gnarly!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Despite the somewhat less than ideal large-scale pattern (mainly related to the persistent -NAO), SPC's 4-8 this morning actually looks seasonably active for the end of April and early May.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Definitely seems like a change from last year. Lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Watching Saturday locally due to the last couple runs of the NAM bringing it in range...not a perfect setup but as depicted there is decent mid/upper diffluence and lapse rates over the warm sector, and the left exit region of the 500mb jet is over S WI/N IL. If that verifies, SPC's Day 4 outlook area is way too far south.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Watching Saturday locally due to the last couple runs of the NAM bringing it in range...not a perfect setup but as depicted there is decent mid/upper diffluence and lapse rates over the warm sector, and the left exit region of the 500mb jet is over S WI/N IL. If that verifies, SPC's Day 4 outlook area is way too far south.

I’ve seen better shear values also … maybe a bit lacking .

 

[Fred Gossage]

Despite the somewhat less than ideal large-scale pattern (mainly related to the persistent -NAO), SPC's 4-8 this morning actually looks seasonably active for the end of April and early May.

The deeper you get into spring, the less the -NAO matters (to an extent). Once you start getting into May, the coastal waters off the Atlantic coast are warmer and support higher dewpoints, and as long as the pattern isn't so highly amplified that you are directly recirculating continental air back into the Gulf, you can still get high enough dewpoints, even if you're pulling from the Atlantic. I don't see anything that stands out as a widespread high-impact day, but I think we will have multiple threats from the Plains eastward, and like Friday's setup, I could see us easily sneaking a violent tornado or two out of what would seem like a lower-end day because of capping concerns or storm coverage.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The deeper you get into spring, the less the -NAO matters (to an extent). Once you start getting into May, the coastal waters off the Atlantic coast are warmer and support higher dewpoints, and as long as the pattern isn't so highly amplified that you are directly recirculating continental air back into the Gulf, you can still get high enough dewpoints, even if you're pulling from the Atlantic. I don't see anything that stands out as a widespread high-impact day, but I think we will have multiple threats from the Plains eastward, and like Friday's setup, I could see us easily sneaking a violent tornado or two out of what would seem like a lower-end day because of capping concerns or storm coverage.

Also a negative nao would also keep Dixie and midsouth Tennessee valley regions in play longer this spring, keeping storm track and jet stream further south…. Cape won’t be much problem with it being later spring season