Severe Weather 2022

[Taylor Campbell]

The op Canadian, op EURO, and GFS ensembles still give Saturday April 2nd a chance to go the more severe way.

Ultimately, this won't happen the worst way, but it was close. Still, this disturbance will aid in an increase severe threat over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and into the Bahamas.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

System with western broad base trough coming out lee of the Rockies on today’s euro 12z run going have be closely watched , plenty rich deep moisture pumping from gulf and even the Caribbean out ahead . Day 9. 10 on today’s euro , but it’s bout when nao start to turn positive and less amped atmosphere to go with …. Stay tuned

 

[JPWX]

Watch around the 15th for yet another threat. Every week from here on out the rest of this month basically.

 

[Casuarina Head]

System with western broad base trough coming out lee of the Rockies on today’s euro 12z run going have be closely watched , plenty rich deep moisture pumping from gulf and even the Caribbean out ahead . Day 9. 10 on today’s euro , but it’s bout when nao start to turn positive and less amped atmosphere to go with …. Stay tuned

However, during that timeframe the EPO reverses itself and goes negative, which could offset the +NAO somewhat and mitigate the threat.

I’m still not seeing the full-fledged transition to a low-amplitude regime that is truly commensurate with the vigorous -PDO/-ENSO/+TNI.

 

[andyhb]

However, during that timeframe the EPO reverses itself and goes negative, which could offset the +NAO somewhat and mitigate the threat.

I’m still not seeing the full-fledged transition to a low-amplitude regime that is truly commensurate with the vigorous -PDO/-ENSO/+TNI.

This is not a -EPO in any sense.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I know, I know, GFS at 252 hours but forecast sounding for MBY. Itching to get out and chase after I stupidly sat out 3/5.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I know, I know, GFS at 252 hours but forecast sounding for MBY. Itching to get out and chase after I stupidly sat out 3/5.

Trust me I know the feeling … I’m ready for a good spring chase myself close my area… trying stay close home for now due my work… but thus everything gone south of me to the heart of Dixie … hoping the midsouth can catch a great event before most stuff sets up toward the lakes… and the plains …

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yeah, looks like models are in great agreement for a huge and powerful western trough. The center part of the country lights up.

 

[Fred Gossage]

The threat of potentially significant severe weather from the big longwave upper trough next week definitely starts over the Plains and Midwest during the early portion of the week... but I am highly, woefully, from the pit of my soul, unconvinced this stays to the northwest of Dixie Alley. GFS ensembles are mixed on the idea of MS/AL/TN being targeted mid next week but several members each run consistently show the idea. Canadian and especially the Euro ensembles are consistently supporting the idea of our area here being directly targeted, with that extending north into the Ohio Valley, toward Wednesday/early Thursday of next week. With the last several systems, including this current one affecting us today and tomorrow, verifying less amplified than originally seen out in the extended, it would stand to reason that the downstream ridge may not end up as high amplitude ahead of this one as it ejects out toward the middle of next week. And that, in turn, would allow for a broader-based trough that is also able to slide more directly east instead of skirt northeast overtop the ridge and pass MS/AL/TN/GA off to the northwest. This may start as a Plains/Midwest fiasco early week, but it has Dixie Alley to Ohio Valley written all over it by mid next week.

For what it's worth, there's been a steady and consistent signal for this singular specific system in the ensembles, weeklies, teleconnections, etc., for a solid month.... for this specific projected impact time, give or take 24 hours or so. I can't think of too many times a long lead-time system like that has wound up turning out to be a benign thing. We'll see...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

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The threat of potentially significant severe weather from the big longwave upper trough next week definitely starts over the Plains and Midwest during the early portion of the week... but I am highly, woefully, from the pit of my soul, unconvinced this stays to the northwest of Dixie Alley. GFS ensembles are mixed on the idea of MS/AL/TN being targeted mid next week but several members each run consistently show the idea. Canadian and especially the Euro ensembles are consistently supporting the idea of our area here being directly targeted, with that extending north into the Ohio Valley, toward Wednesday/early Thursday of next week. With the last several systems, including this current one affecting us today and tomorrow, verifying less amplified than originally seen out in the extended, it would stand to reason that the downstream ridge may not end up as high amplitude ahead of this one as it ejects out toward the middle of next week. And that, in turn, would allow for a broader-based trough that is also able to slide more directly east instead of skirt northeast overtop the ridge and pass MS/AL/TN/GA off to the northwest. This may start as a Plains/Midwest fiasco early week, but it has Dixie Alley to Ohio Valley written all over it by mid next week.

For what it's worth, there's been a steady and consistent signal for this singular specific system in the ensembles, weeklies, teleconnections, etc., for a solid month.... for this specific projected impact time, give or take 24 hours or so. I can't think of too many times a long lead-time system like that has wound up turning out to be a benign thing. We'll see...

SPC already has a risk area in for Monday 4/11.

 

[MichelleH]

View attachment 13145 View attachment 13146 View attachment 13147

The threat of potentially significant severe weather from the big longwave upper trough next week definitely starts over the Plains and Midwest during the early portion of the week... but I am highly, woefully, from the pit of my soul, unconvinced this stays to the northwest of Dixie Alley. GFS ensembles are mixed on the idea of MS/AL/TN being targeted mid next week but several members each run consistently show the idea. Canadian and especially the Euro ensembles are consistently supporting the idea of our area here being directly targeted, with that extending north into the Ohio Valley, toward Wednesday/early Thursday of next week. With the last several systems, including this current one affecting us today and tomorrow, verifying less amplified than originally seen out in the extended, it would stand to reason that the downstream ridge may not end up as high amplitude ahead of this one as it ejects out toward the middle of next week. And that, in turn, would allow for a broader-based trough that is also able to slide more directly east instead of skirt northeast overtop the ridge and pass MS/AL/TN/GA off to the northwest. This may start as a Plains/Midwest fiasco early week, but it has Dixie Alley to Ohio Valley written all over it by mid next week.

For what it's worth, there's been a steady and consistent signal for this singular specific system in the ensembles, weeklies, teleconnections, etc., for a solid month.... for this specific projected impact time, give or take 24 hours or so. I can't think of too many times a long lead-time system like that has wound up turning out to be a benign thing. We'll see...

Strong systems seen way in advance don't give me a great feeling.

 

[atrainguy]

Seeing as this possible system may impact the Midwest, I wonder if this'll end up being my first storm of the year. I don't think I've even heard thunder yet this spring, but we're kinda due for it. We've had tornadoes in my local area as early as March in recent years, so I'm gonna have to keep an eye on it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Still a lot of variability at this range...main surface low further south and instability waaaaaaay down for 4/13 on the 06Z GFS run vs. the 00Z. One thing that's consistent in the model is a weird splitting southern branch of the jet that goes over the Gulf coast. So far it doesn't *seem* to have any surface reflection that negatively impacts thermodynamics further north, except possibly on this 06Z run.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Still a lot of variability at this range...main surface low further south and instability waaaaaaay down for 4/13 on the 06Z GFS run vs. the 00Z. One thing that's consistent in the model is a weird splitting southern branch of the jet that goes over the Gulf coast.

Could this mark the beginning of a trend toward a higher-amplitude, split-flow solution? The past two 00Z EPS means have trended toward a lower amplitude.

 

[Casuarina Head]

With the last several systems, including this current one affecting us today and tomorrow, verifying less amplified than originally seen out in the extended, ...

At what timeframes? Do you have any maps that could serve to illustrate this? I am still a little skeptical as to whether the low amplitude being modelled will persist.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

At what timeframes? Do you have any maps that could serve to illustrate this? I am still a little skeptical as to whether the low amplitude being modelled will persist.

Myself I’m interested in Monday for the southern plains area, then Tuesday into Wednesday midsouth , Tennessee valley Ohio valley regions

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Myself I’m interested in Monday for the southern plains area, then Tuesday into Wednesday midsouth , Tennessee valley Ohio valley regions

Wow 12z. Euro has big 3 day severe threat setup next weeks plains going into Ohio valley …. Going be interesting see how the trough gets ejected from west to east .

 

[Fred Gossage]

I am showing the 12z Euro ensemble suite, but GFS and Canadian ensembles do not disagree. This thing is firmly squared up Wednesday afternoon/night from central Alabama/Mississippi up into the Ohio Valley, and likely starting as far west as Arkansas, Louisiana, and eastern Missouri. The operational Euro has also trended broader based and farther south with the trough compared to previous runs. This is taking one of two surface low tracks that is historically classic for large-scale tornado events in our immediate area here... Missouri to east Iowa/north Illinois. That is what I usually refer to as classic track #2 for our area, with classic track #1 being the typical Arkansas/Missouri to Ohio Valley track we are familiar with. Both have been as equally violent over the years. Given both the width and northward extent of the warm sector modeled and how the geometry of the large scale longwave trough would support widespread EML advection overtop the warm sector, this has the look at the synoptic level of a large-scale significant event. What actually happens will be dictated by the exact geometry of the trough, timing, convection from the day prior, small-scale features, etc., that always dictate the ultimate outcome of a severe weather event. However, you can't and don't get much more clear of a large scale medium range signal as you do across the three main ensemble sets. This will start in the Plains, Midwest, Arklatex, etc., early week, but this firmly targets Dixie Alley to the Ohio Valley by Wednesday and Wednesday night, unless something radically changes.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

0z euro last night says hold on n buckle up. … pattern ahead looks ripe for severe weather with potential something significant.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

0z euro last night says hold on n buckle up. … pattern ahead looks ripe for severe weather with potential something significant.

Broad based...check. Negatively tilted...check. Upper level divergence...check.