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Severe Weather 2022

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 15 68.2%
  • Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
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Taylor Campbell

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1D6227E7-FA00-419B-9D3A-918D4F339D20.png

High res models like the 3KM NAM and HRRR show some strong updraft helicity streaks in this 5% risk area.
 
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Day 7 outlook area up for this coming week Friday. Of course it's when I'll be out of the country (wife & I 1st anniversary trip to Cancun). Also keeping an eye on that Caribbean tropical system, although at this time it looks to go due west into CA.
 

Taylor Campbell

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13 hour drive for me to Austin, Texas. The EURO and the GFS model looked rough from there into east Texas on Saturday.
 

Jacob

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Models are all over the place the evolution of this trough as it moves onshore from the Pacific. Looks like they are trending back to a more progressive solution, with the low eventually cutting off but continuing to eject east. Models looked like they might try to cut that low off and slow it down over AZ/NM for a while, but that solution has much less model support now. Looks like there's no issue with moisture return ahead of this trough, so it's more of a where/when things line up as opposed to if.

Those changing model trends keep bouncing it back and forth between rain and snow solutions out here in Utah.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Great job Nadocast for picking up on this locally enhanced chance for tornadoes in this area today. Went from 5% to 10% to 15%.

9BDA380E-3CBD-42F6-9308-2CE2258D0CD1.png
 

Taylor Campbell

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Looks like this threat isn’t over for several more hours. Mobile, AL is about to see some supercells come onshore and then the storms back to the west.
 
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