Severe Weather 2022

[KevinH]

The models have been showing potential for a higher ceiling severe event November 4th-6th.

For which areas?

 

[JPWX]

SPC starting to make mention of the early November threat in their Day 4-8 discussion this morning.

 

[thundersnow]

For which areas?

That date range is really far out (>10 days from now). I assume he’s reading a large scale setup without zeroing in on specifically where just yet.

 

[DetectiveWX]

Far out, but definitely entering the fall/winter tornado season in Hoosier/Dixie

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Watch far eastern Texas on Friday near Houston.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

High res models like the 3KM NAM and HRRR show some strong updraft helicity streaks in this 5% risk area.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Day 7 outlook area up for this coming week Friday. Of course it's when I'll be out of the country (wife & I 1st anniversary trip to Cancun). Also keeping an eye on that Caribbean tropical system, although at this time it looks to go due west into CA.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

13 hour drive for me to Austin, Texas. The EURO and the GFS model looked rough from there into east Texas on Saturday.

 

[Jacob]

Models are all over the place the evolution of this trough as it moves onshore from the Pacific. Looks like they are trending back to a more progressive solution, with the low eventually cutting off but continuing to eject east. Models looked like they might try to cut that low off and slow it down over AZ/NM for a while, but that solution has much less model support now. Looks like there's no issue with moisture return ahead of this trough, so it's more of a where/when things line up as opposed to if.

Those changing model trends keep bouncing it back and forth between rain and snow solutions out here in Utah.

 

[JBishopwx]

Tornado Watch up for South Mississippi and parts of Louisiana

 

[KevinH]

The models have been showing potential for a higher ceiling severe event November 4th-6th.

Ryan Hall just mentioned this timeframe in his latest video uploaded today.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Here we go.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Confirmed damaging tornado just north of downtown Moss Point, MS.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Great job Nadocast for picking up on this locally enhanced chance for tornadoes in this area today. Went from 5% to 10% to 15%.

 

[TH2002]

Only took a single scan for this to pop up... wow.

 

[TH2002]

Two tornadoes on the ground.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Moss Point tornado

 

[Jacob]

Moss Point tornado

View attachment 15310

Wow. Does anybody know if it was on the ground as the storm moved onshore? I worked in that area a lot at my previous job.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Looks like this threat isn’t over for several more hours. Mobile, AL is about to see some supercells come onshore and then the storms back to the west.