Severe Weather 2022

[Bevo]

As of today, got a 15% risk issued for Days 4 and 5 for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310843
SPC AC 310843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A potent upper trough over the western U.S. early Day 4/Thu will
develop a closed low as it shifts east toward the Four Corners
vicinity by Day 5/Fri, before emerging over the Plains on Day 6/Sat.
As this system develops eastward, strong deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. While
uncertainty remains with respect to northward extent of Gulf
moisture return, rich Gulf moisture should reside over TX/OK and
parts of KS by Thursday evening and into Friday ahead of a
southeastward sagging cold front. Increasing moisture will support
at least modest destabilization as midlevel cooling results in
steepening lapse rates over the southern/central Plains.

Severe potential appears most likely across portions of the TX
Panhandle into northwest OK and western KS beginning Thursday
evening into the overnight hours as stronger height falls and
increasing ascent spreads eastward into western portions of the
central/southern Plains. Forecast soundings indicate thermodynamic
and shear profiles favorable for organized cells capable of all
severe hazards. On Friday, the surface front is forecast to move
slowly eastward across western TX/OK. A combination of heavy rain
and severe potential is expected, with greatest relative severe
potential likely focused across southern portions of OK into
western/central TX near and south of a surface low.

By Day 6/Sat the upper low/trough will lift northeast across the
southern Plains toward the MS Valley and Upper Midwest vicinity.
Some severe potential could continue into parts of eastern TX and
the Arklatex vicinity. However, widespread heavy rain may limit
destabilization as stronger forcing and favorable shear become
increasingly displaced to the northeast.

Forecast guidance varies considerably by Day 7/Sun into Day 8/Mon.
However, severe potential appears low by the end of the forecast
period.

..Leitman.. 10/31/2022

 

[JPWX]

So I thought this was interesting. Was just looking at the last time a Moderate Risk was issued in November. The last one was November 30th 2016. The previous one was in 2013 and before that one, 2006. The most recent High Risk issued in November was in 2013.

 

[KevinH]

So I thought this was interesting. Was just looking at the last time a Moderate Risk was issued in November. The last one was November 30th 2016. The previous one was in 2013 and before that one, 2006. The most recent High Risk issued in November was in 2013.

WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO SAY?! lol

Jk jk

 

[CheeselandSkies]

At this point, not looking like much will come of today's "threat" in the Midwest coincident with the 2002 anniversary. Just not enough instability. Certainly some potential for spinners in coastal areas of the Southeast associated with Nicole, but no reports so far.

 

[Ivanthetornadoenthusiast]

June 11 is one of those days where i got lucky to capture a funnel cloud. This funnel cloud right here was spotted in Tabanan and it lasted for some minutes, it probably did touched down somewhere behind those buildings.

 

[Tennie]

June 11 is one of those days where i got lucky to capture a funnel cloud. This funnel cloud right here was spotted in Tabanan and it lasted for some minutes, it probably did touched down somewhere behind those buildings.
View attachment 15459

That reminds me of the first time I saw (and photographed) a waterspout in person back in May 2019 (though I still have yet to see an actual tornado in person, though I would prefer for that to occur in an open area with no structures/people to worry about):



(Do note that I had to take the pic from a mesh-protected balcony, as it was the only place available to me that offered a good viewing angle.)

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Two tornadic storms headed towards Richmond, VA spawn off by remnants of Nicole.

 

[gregassagraf]

Storm chaser Maycon Zanata (@maycon.zanata on instagram) spotted this lowering in a storm near Brazil-Paraguay border. Looks like a large tornado in progress.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

View attachment 15469

Storm chaser Maycon Zanata (@maycon.zanata on instagram) spotted this lowering in a storm near Brazil-Paraguay border. Looks like a large tornado in progress.

Why oh why does this look vaguely familiar.....

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Would anyone like to join me on a chase in the northern Gulf today?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The models are showing some hints of a potential pattern change late next week (around Thanksgiving) and into the last week of November that could induce a severe threat. Something to not lose sight of as we approach the holiday.

 

[KevinH]

The models are showing some hints of a potential pattern change late next week (around Thanksgiving) and into the last week of November that could induce a severe threat. Something to not lose sight off as we approach the holiday.

Where are the models saying there is a possibility of SVR WX? Let me guess, Dixie right?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Models hinting at a fairly higher end severe risk around thanksgiving for areas in the south. More details later

 

[KevinH]

Models hinting at a fairly higher end severe risk around thanksgiving for areas in the south. More details later

I was waiting for a Dixie fall event. What states in the south were the models pointing at?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I was waiting for a Dixie fall event. What states in the south were the models pointing at?

Most Mississippi and Alabama in play appears , not sure how far north if perhaps southern Tennessee gets involved

 

[JPWX]

It's honestly been a while since we've had a Thanksgiving week severe weather threat. The last one was back in 2016 but that was on November 29th.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20161129. To find a severe weather outbreak that occurred around or actually on Thanksgiving day, you have to go back to 2004. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20041124

 

[KevinH]

Most Mississippi and Alabama in play appears , not sure how far north if perhaps southern Tennessee gets involved

MS and AL, the “Oklahomas of the South”…… SHOCKER. Lol I live close to AL (W Cntrl GA) so I will be watching.

 

[KevinH]

It's honestly been a while since we've had a Thanksgiving week severe weather threat. The last one was back in 2016 but that was on November 29th.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20161129. To find a severe weather outbreak that occurred around or actually on Thanksgiving day, you have to go back to 2004. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20041124

Wow…

I remember a November event right after I moved to GA in 2011. I will be watching to see if the risk areas SHIFT EAST

 

[gregassagraf]

View attachment 15469

Storm chaser Maycon Zanata (@maycon.zanata on instagram) spotted this lowering in a storm near Brazil-Paraguay border. Looks like a large tornado in progress.

Just a quick update:
Maycon returned to the affected area after local farmers reported some severe crop damage. This is what he encountered:

 

[gregassagraf]

Just a quick update:
Maycon returned to the affected area after local farmers reported some severe crop damage. This is what he encountered:

View attachment 15485


View attachment 15487

What is even stranger is that the tornado seems to have been produced by an embedded supercell. YouTube video posted by Maycon Zanata with footage of last Sunday chase:




UPDATE: the damage observed the post mentioned, was most probably caused by a powerfull microburst. The direction in which the plants were laying didn't indicate a tornadic damage.