Severe Weather 2021

[Argus]

I don't see how the atmosphere will be able to recover in 48 hours. I'm anticipating a wedge situation could develop over Georgia.

 

[Bevo]

I'm waiting to see the HRRR runs tomorrow but I'm not liking what the NAM models are spitting out for Texas and Oklahoma on Friday. Yeesh.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I'm waiting to see the HRRR runs tomorrow but I'm not liking what the NAM models are spitting out for Texas and Oklahoma on Friday. Yeesh.

Parameter space on the 3K NAM is very ominous, yet it only spits out one apparent supercell that it tracks close to the Red River.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Getting more n more interested for next week for parts mid south tennessee valley region. Models overnight have increased slp strength and also the trough ... allowing much better low level moisture return . Day 6 still looks very ominous for Oklahoma parts north Texas also...

 

[Casuarina Head]

Getting more n more interested for next week for parts mid south tennessee valley region.

I respectfully disagree. Compared to yesterday’s 00Z suite, the latest 00Z EPS has trended toward more of a split-flow regime by 27 April. I think we will see further trends toward less of a negative tilt and more of a split-flow pattern, as has been the case with a number of systems recently. Split flow seems to win consistently and lower the ceiling for higher-end potentiality. At least the past several systems have shown this to be the case.

 

[Clancy]

While we've got some activity going on today, here's what CIPS is showing for next week (April 29, specifically).

 

[Casuarina Head]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Seems the pna is fixing crash within week to weeks out. Could get interesting .

 

[MattW]

As to the last two posts, what do those things typically correlate to in regards to severe weather and where?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

As to the last two posts, what do those things typically correlate to in regards to severe weather and where?

A negative pna is a major factor in a severe weather pattern . Now where that will fake place depends a lot on Atlantic ridging how strong it becomes ....

 

[ARCC]

Here we go again, models showing another low amp wave next week. The Euro is bonkers on instability.

 

[Clancy]

SPC has a D4 15% out for most of MS and parts of surrounding states.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Brad Travis mentioned the Sunday night>Monday time frame as needing to be watched. Cape and EHI we’re pretty potent on the model runs he was showing on his Facebook live. He also said Wednesday could be rough but that’s still a ways out.

 

[andyhb]

Both Sunday (5/2) and Tuesday (5/4) look to have some potential in the Southeast as the cutoff low left behind by this week's trough ejects eastward as the pattern progresses and a new trough amplifies in the west. Wouldn't be surprised if the warm sector is truncated on Sunday given the trajectory of the wave, but Tuesday may be more interesting.

 

[Clancy]

Quite a string of tornadoes in Mississippi today. Some wicked drone footage from one as well.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Quite a string of tornadoes in Mississippi today. Some wicked drone footage from one as well.

I’ve actually posted a thread on this threat below, I’m trying to get it pinned to the top.

 

[Clancy]

I’ve actually posted a thread on this threat below, I’m trying to get it pinned to the top.

Oh darn, you did? That's my bad!

 

[Bama Ravens]

Oh darn, you did? That's my bad!

No problem, with it being below the pinned threads it sort of goes unseen. Hopefully it’ll get pinned soon. I didn’t want you to miss out on the discussion, though.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Yeah today has been an overperformer for Dixie for sure. I was honestly convinced tomorrow would be the bigger day, but we'll see how that plays out.

 

[Brice Wood]

expect this to grow