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Severe Weather 2021 (9 Viewers)

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Getting more n more interested for next week for parts mid south tennessee valley region. Models overnight have increased slp strength and also the trough ... allowing much better low level moisture return . Day 6 still looks very ominous for Oklahoma parts north Texas also...
 
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Getting more n more interested for next week for parts mid south tennessee valley region.
I respectfully disagree. Compared to yesterday’s 00Z suite, the latest 00Z EPS has trended toward more of a split-flow regime by 27 April. I think we will see further trends toward less of a negative tilt and more of a split-flow pattern, as has been the case with a number of systems recently. Split flow seems to win consistently and lower the ceiling for higher-end potentiality. At least the past several systems have shown this to be the case.
 

MattW

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As to the last two posts, what do those things typically correlate to in regards to severe weather and where?
 

Weatherphreak

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Brad Travis mentioned the Sunday night>Monday time frame as needing to be watched. Cape and EHI we’re pretty potent on the model runs he was showing on his Facebook live. He also said Wednesday could be rough but that’s still a ways out.
 
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andyhb

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Both Sunday (5/2) and Tuesday (5/4) look to have some potential in the Southeast as the cutoff low left behind by this week's trough ejects eastward as the pattern progresses and a new trough amplifies in the west. Wouldn't be surprised if the warm sector is truncated on Sunday given the trajectory of the wave, but Tuesday may be more interesting.
 

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