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Severe Weather 2021 (18 Viewers)

Kory

Member
Messages
4,833
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
While the Euro itself is a higher end look, a big -NAO plunge in a largely -NAO regime for this month makes me skeptical that the Euro solution has much legs. This one has a long way to go. GFS again isn’t nearly as bullish...matter of fact the latest 18z run is quite tame comparatively.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,833
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
This type of pattern with lots of cut offs tend to reinforce the high latitude blocking we’ve seen definitely hamper this month’s severe wx production.

Add in the recurving typhoon many were speculating were going to get absorbed/phased with a mid latitude system and shake up the pattern...that doesn’t appear to be the case in latest guidance.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
377
Location
Norman, OK
This type of pattern with lots of cut offs tend to reinforce the high latitude blocking we’ve seen definitely hamper this month’s severe wx production.

Add in the recurving typhoon many were speculating were going to get absorbed/phased with a mid latitude system and shake up the pattern...that doesn’t appear to be the case in latest guidance.
Huh? The TC gets absorbed into the flow on all guidance in the D4-5 period and is partly responsible for the development of the jet extension in the Pacific going into early May.

Add in active MJO progression and it's no surprise there's some shift in mid-range ensemble guidance towards a more favorable pattern relative to the one that has been in place for mid April.
 

Keldeo

Member
Messages
51
Location
North Little Rock
day7prob.gif


Medium-range guidance
remains in fairly good agreement that another large-scale upper
trough will advance eastward from the western CONUS to the Plains in
the Day 6/Monday to Day 7/Tuesday time frame. The past several runs
of the deterministic ECMWF show a very favorable setup for organized
severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe hazards across
parts of central TX into OK and southern KS, with moderate to strong
instability forecast to overlap rich low-level moisture in the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. There has been a consistent
enough signal in guidance suggesting a substantial severe threat may
develop across these areas next Tuesday to introduce 15% severe
probabilities. Greater probabilities may be needed if current model
trends continue.


Pretty strong wording already from the SPC. Doesn't help that this is happening on a very infamous anniversary.......
 

MattW

Member
Messages
241
Location
Decatur, GA
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Next weeks looks intense, but let's not forget about this weekend. This sounding is from the NAM (end of its range I know) about 20 miles WSW of Macon, GA at 14:00 EDT.
 

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Brice Wood

Member
Messages
128
Location
Virginia
It's far from unheard of, but it's still over quite a large area and it's farther east into parts of Georgia than is usually the case with a lot of systems.
Yea it just breaks my heart to see Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia dealing with another potential outbreak
 

Clancy

Member
Messages
232
Location
Atlanta, Georgia
BMX AFD mentions severe potential Saturday but harbors skepticism about the degree of stabilization in the afternoon, as there's supposed to be some of that classic morning precip ahead of the main event. Screenshot_20210421-124026~2.jpg
 

Tennie

Member
Messages
282
Location
Tennessee
I just realized:

We've been talking about how there looks to be a severe weather setup forking for the Great Plains on the 27th, and that that date will be a certain 10th anniversary, but it should also be pointed out that that date will also be one day after the 30th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that featured the Andover and Red Rock tornadoes (among others). So keep that in mind.
 

Brice Wood

Member
Messages
128
Location
Virginia
I just realized:

We've been talking about how there looks to be a severe weather setup forking for the Great Plains on the 27th, and that that date will be a certain 10th anniversary, but it should also be pointed out that that date will also be one day after the 30th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that featured the Andover and Red Rock tornadoes (among others). So keep that in mind.
Oh my goodness, that’s eerily true
 

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