Severe Weather 2021 (5 Viewers)

Kragg

Member
Messages
36
Location
Burning Hams
Windy is showing the low positioned right around Tennessee as well as the euro. I know that it’s a bit far out for accurate convective models, but their model (windy) was trying to develop a bunch of tstorms along the gulf on Saturday. And anybody who’s followed weather around here for a while knows that a good convective system along the coast shuts off central AL from instability. Unfortunately that convection looks less strong this morning, but it’s really too far out too to worry too much one way or another right now.
 
Messages
834
Location
Madison, WI
View attachment 9001
View attachment 9002

9 days out, but this is pretty strong signal from the 00z EPS and GEFS for a substantial central US trough in the 4/26-4/28 timeframe, moisture dependent on the evolution prior.

I was just commenting on that on Stormtrack. I have a 4-day break from work scheduled 4/28-5/1, wasn't necessarily looking toward chasing when I booked it but will be nice if it works out. My full chasecastion is tentatively planned for later in May unless the pattern goes to complete hell again.
 
Messages
834
Location
Madison, WI
In the shorter term, SPC has a Day-5 risk outlook in place over much of the South for Saturday the 24th. They mention in the discussion that the LLJ might be mis-timed, leaving veered winds over the warm sector, but it's the next thing to watch following this mid-April lull.
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
445
Location
Hanceville, AL
SPC is already mentioning next week. From the Day 4-8 Outlook:

"Deterministic medium-range guidance is in surprisingly good
agreement in depicting another upper trough ejecting from the
western CONUS across the Plains around Day 7/Monday into Day
8/Tuesday. Substantial low-level moisture return may occur ahead of
this feature across a part of the southern Plains. Assuming
sufficient low-level moisture does indeed materialize, then the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable timing of the
ejecting upper trough suggest an organized severe risk may develop
on Tuesday across some portion of OK/TX. A 15% severe area may need
to be introduced for next Tuesday as soon as the next outlook update
if run-to-run model consistency continues."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
 

Clancy

Member
Messages
232
Location
Atlanta, Georgia
SPC is already mentioning next week. From the Day 4-8 Outlook:

"Deterministic medium-range guidance is in surprisingly good
agreement in depicting another upper trough ejecting from the
western CONUS across the Plains around Day 7/Monday into Day
8/Tuesday. Substantial low-level moisture return may occur ahead of
this feature across a part of the southern Plains. Assuming
sufficient low-level moisture does indeed materialize, then the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable timing of the
ejecting upper trough suggest an organized severe risk may develop
on Tuesday across some portion of OK/TX. A 15% severe area may need
to be introduced for next Tuesday as soon as the next outlook update
if run-to-run model consistency continues."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
In that part of the outlook, says they may go with a 15% area for some of the Central states as soon as tomorrow's D7.
 

Tennie

Member
Messages
280
Location
Tennessee
Strictly for entertainment purposes at this range, but this is a pretty gnarly sounding over Mississippi off the 20/00Z GFS. It's the day after the 10th anniversary of you-know-what, and of course a Wednesday.

Make special note of that SARS supercell analog...


Uhhh, holy cripes.

That 500 mb map doesn't look comforting, but I wish that the ECMWF's data distribution policy would be a lot less restrictive than it currently is, as it would allow us to see even more features in order to see what one should expect (though, given how far out in advance that currently is...).
 

Taylor Campbell

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
911
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Make special note of that SARS supercell analog...



That 500 mb map doesn't look comforting, but I wish that the ECMWF's data distribution policy would be a lot less restrictive than it currently is, as it would allow us to see even more features in order to see what one should expect (though, given how far out in advance that currently is...).

You can view all 50 ensemble members on weather.us.
 

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