Severe Weather 2021

[MattW]

Well, the GFS for Saturday is showing what I'd call "classic Dixie." I'm seeing some junk out ahead of the main event lifting north through the morning, followed by the main event rolling in from the west. At least to my eyes there is potential with this one.

 

[Kragg]

Windy is showing the low positioned right around Tennessee as well as the euro. I know that it’s a bit far out for accurate convective models, but their model (windy) was trying to develop a bunch of tstorms along the gulf on Saturday. And anybody who’s followed weather around here for a while knows that a good convective system along the coast shuts off central AL from instability. Unfortunately that convection looks less strong this morning, but it’s really too far out too to worry too much one way or another right now.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS for April 24.

 

[andyhb]

9 days out, but this is pretty strong signal from the 00z EPS and GEFS for a substantial central US trough in the 4/26-4/28 timeframe, moisture dependent on the evolution prior.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

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9 days out, but this is pretty strong signal from the 00z EPS and GEFS for a substantial central US trough in the 4/26-4/28 timeframe, moisture dependent on the evolution prior.

I was just commenting on that on Stormtrack. I have a 4-day break from work scheduled 4/28-5/1, wasn't necessarily looking toward chasing when I booked it but will be nice if it works out. My full chasecastion is tentatively planned for later in May unless the pattern goes to complete hell again.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

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9 days out, but this is pretty strong signal from the 00z EPS and GEFS for a substantial central US trough in the 4/26-4/28 timeframe, moisture dependent on the evolution prior.

That’s the system got my eye on there ... thanks for posting

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Strictly for entertainment purposes at this range, but this is a pretty gnarly sounding over Mississippi off the 20/00Z GFS. It's the day after the 10th anniversary of you-know-what, and of course a Wednesday.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This upcoming 27 April 2021 is also a Wednesday and falls on the tenth anniversary of Wednesday, 27 April 2011...so, let’s not.

It's next Tuesday.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

In the shorter term, SPC has a Day-5 risk outlook in place over much of the South for Saturday the 24th. They mention in the discussion that the LLJ might be mis-timed, leaving veered winds over the warm sector, but it's the next thing to watch following this mid-April lull.

 

[Weatherphreak]

This Saturday system has completely screwed my DEGA plans.

 

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

This Saturday system has completely screwed my DEGA plans.

I mean, it's NASCAR. They have an uncanny ability to make it rain anytime they go somewhere. I bet they could even bring rain to the heart of the Sahara.

Last year they did the West Coast Swing and it rained two of the three weekends they were there lol

 

[MichelleH]

SPC is already mentioning next week. From the Day 4-8 Outlook:

"Deterministic medium-range guidance is in surprisingly good
agreement in depicting another upper trough ejecting from the
western CONUS across the Plains around Day 7/Monday into Day
8/Tuesday. Substantial low-level moisture return may occur ahead of
this feature across a part of the southern Plains. Assuming
sufficient low-level moisture does indeed materialize, then the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable timing of the
ejecting upper trough suggest an organized severe risk may develop
on Tuesday across some portion of OK/TX. A 15% severe area may need
to be introduced for next Tuesday as soon as the next outlook update
if run-to-run model consistency continues."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

 

[Tanner]

I mean, it's NASCAR. They have an uncanny ability to make it rain anytime they go somewhere. I bet they could even bring rain to the heart of the Sahara.

Last year they did the West Coast Swing and it rained two of the three weekends they were there lol

Ever heard of the vortex theory? Lol

 

[Clancy]

SPC is already mentioning next week. From the Day 4-8 Outlook:

"Deterministic medium-range guidance is in surprisingly good
agreement in depicting another upper trough ejecting from the
western CONUS across the Plains around Day 7/Monday into Day
8/Tuesday. Substantial low-level moisture return may occur ahead of
this feature across a part of the southern Plains. Assuming
sufficient low-level moisture does indeed materialize, then the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable timing of the
ejecting upper trough suggest an organized severe risk may develop
on Tuesday across some portion of OK/TX. A 15% severe area may need
to be introduced for next Tuesday as soon as the next outlook update
if run-to-run model consistency continues."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

In that part of the outlook, says they may go with a 15% area for some of the Central states as soon as tomorrow's D7.

 

[andyhb]

Uhhh, holy cripes.

 

[Tennie]

Strictly for entertainment purposes at this range, but this is a pretty gnarly sounding over Mississippi off the 20/00Z GFS. It's the day after the 10th anniversary of you-know-what, and of course a Wednesday.

Make special note of that SARS supercell analog...

Uhhh, holy cripes.

That 500 mb map doesn't look comforting, but I wish that the ECMWF's data distribution policy would be a lot less restrictive than it currently is, as it would allow us to see even more features in order to see what one should expect (though, given how far out in advance that currently is...).

 

[Keldeo]

 

[MattW]

Wow Reed, could you hype it up any more?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wow Reed, could you hype it up any more?

The euro per verbatim is rather nasty for next week ...midsouth parts Dixie..

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Make special note of that SARS supercell analog...



That 500 mb map doesn't look comforting, but I wish that the ECMWF's data distribution policy would be a lot less restrictive than it currently is, as it would allow us to see even more features in order to see what one should expect (though, given how far out in advance that currently is...).

You can view all 50 ensemble members on weather.us.