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Severe Weather 2021

David in SW Blount said:
Many people are simply bad at risk assessment, although the chance of ever being affected directly by a tornado is so low, I can understand it to some degree. Nevertheless, it's not difficult to make simple preparations like getting a place to shelter ready just in case. I understand, too, how disruptive kids being out of school can be. Even if the fireworks on Wednesday were not as dramatic as many expected, though, I would not have wanted my child in a school.
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Right, the change is low, but not zero. You never know what tornadoes are going to do, where and when. THAT alone is enough to warrant taking precautions when the threat of tornadoes is present.
 
The GFS is looking the most bullish for next week right now. I see the EURO has quite a few supporting ensembles in line with the GFS and its ensembles. We will need to keep a close eye on things because if all this energy ejects right we could be dealing with significant trouble.

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Taylor Campbell said:
The GFS is looking the most bullish for next week right now. I see the EURO has quite a few supporting ensembles in line with the GFS and its ensembles. We will need to keep a close eye on things because if all this energy ejects right we could be dealing with significant trouble.

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I am sure a separate thread for next week will end up being created in the coming days‍♂️
 
We might need to start talking about Thursday. The GFSv16, CMC, and UKMET all depict a pretty significant severe weather event, albeit I haven't looked at ensembles. The GFSv16 in particular has an absolute nasty setup across MS and AL, even into GA by 00z. The wind profiles and EML pairing are downright nasty.

The overall signal is for a broad mean/longwave trough to set up over the central US with southwesterly flow over the deep south. Of course, this allows for a plume of EML air to advect northeastward over the lower terrain of the deep south, with moisture surging northward. When that low-amplitude, neutral/neg tilt wave ejects out of the south central US into the southeast, it's going to be ugly if the GFSv16/CMC/UK are correct.
 
MetFromTheBlue said:
We might need to start talking about Thursday. The GFSv16, CMC, and UKMET all depict a pretty significant severe weather event, albeit I haven't looked at ensembles. The GFSv16 in particular has an absolute nasty setup across MS and AL, even into GA by 00z. The wind profiles and EML pairing are downright nasty.

The overall signal is for a broad mean/longwave trough to set up over the central US with southwesterly flow over the deep south. Of course, this allows for a plume of EML air to advect northeastward over the lower terrain of the deep south, with moisture surging northward. When that low-amplitude, neutral/neg tilt wave ejects out of the south central US into the southeast, it's going to be ugly if the GFSv16/CMC/UK are correct.
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There's definitely an increasing signal there, for all those reasons, especially if the system can get the least bit of a northwest trend. Euro is faster with the system, but it slowed down with the St. Patrick's Day system as we got closer. Operational GFS is asleep at the wheel like it is 80% of the time or more. I think there is definitely cause to at least watch it carefully.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
The GFS is looking the most bullish for next week right now. I see the EURO has quite a few supporting ensembles in line with the GFS and its ensembles. We will need to keep a close eye on things because if all this energy ejects right we could be dealing with significant trouble.

*IMAGE REMOVED*
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Where did you get this image from?
 
CIPS is increasingly enthusiastic about Thursday.
1616253498541.png
 
MetFromTheBlue said:
We might need to start talking about Thursday. The GFSv16, CMC, and UKMET all depict a pretty significant severe weather event, albeit I haven't looked at ensembles. The GFSv16 in particular has an absolute nasty setup across MS and AL, even into GA by 00z. The wind profiles and EML pairing are downright nasty.

The overall signal is for a broad mean/longwave trough to set up over the central US with southwesterly flow over the deep south. Of course, this allows for a plume of EML air to advect northeastward over the lower terrain of the deep south, with moisture surging northward. When that low-amplitude, neutral/neg tilt wave ejects out of the south central US into the southeast, it's going to be ugly if the GFSv16/CMC/UK are correct.
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Longwave troughs mean business. For the sake of the deep south, I really hope this doesn't pan out.
 
There's significant differences regarding the timing of the Thurs-Fri system, but here's the ensemble SCP from the 12Z GEFS. The majority of them show elevated parameters at some point during the 3/25-26 time frame. It's not included in this loop, but the ensembles also showed something over the weekend, although the levels of temporal disagreement and geographic placement were much higher.
 

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Echoing the sentiments above, and giving the obvious caveat that things in the models can and will change over the next several days, Thursday still definitely is catching my attention. I can't be 100% certain that I remember correctly, but I think that model runs at or around this range for Wednesday's event showed weaker wind fields for last Wednesday than what I've seen thrown around already for next Thursday. That could be pretty big if it turns out to be true. Not quite sure about instability, but we know that the Southeast doesn't need multiple thousand j/kg of CAPE to do big things anyways.

Wednesday was definitely a noteworthy event, and by this time next year, we could be looking back at it as one of the bigger single-day outbreaks of the year (pretty sure we end up around 30-40 tornadoes total). But I doubt it'll be the biggest. Given that Wednesday didn't quite reach its ceiling, I fear that another outbreak in the coming weeks could come in and blow it out of the water, whether it be by sheer numbers or by human impact. Let's hope not though.
 
Not that it's all that useful this far out, but here's the CWASP product from the 18Z GFS, valid at 00Z Friday.1616293104992.png
 
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