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Severe Weather 2021

Some damage coming out of Bertram, TX @Austin Dawg


That's just a couple of miles NW of my location where I noticed the signature on radar from the approaching storm. I kept looking at the radar going out and looking and the clouds which were very low but I couldn't see if they were rotating. I thought I was just having delusions until they popped up the warning.

Guess I will believe RadarScope Pro from now on. It was a good example of how any severe thunderstorm can become tornadic at any time and we still don't understand why.
 
Glen Burns just posted on Facebook that behind Sunday's threat, another potential one next Wednesday (Mar 31st).
 
To those of you far better at reading the long-range better than I, what are we looking at severe wise? I think we have some marginal stuff on Wednesday, but anything beyond that?
 
Looking at subseasonal indicators it feels like we may be alright until the second half of April but that's far from a guarantee, quick glance at modeling shows high pressure and mostly quiet conditions for a while after Wednesday though
 
To those of you far better at reading the long-range better than I, what are we looking at severe wise? I think we have some marginal stuff on Wednesday, but anything beyond that?

There are a lot of discrepancies among the models for next week so it’s hard to be too confident about any solution, but the GFS operational and ensembles have up ticked in a potential system mid-late next week.
 
NWS has suffered a data outage issue this morning (Tuesday), so the SPC outlooks have not been updated.
They seem to be having a lot of issues as of late. I know that during the last severe event the NWSChat service was randomly dropping out as well.
 
Well better that it happened this week than last week, I guess. It is pretty bad that they have to encourage people to stay out of NWS Chat on big days. Their system really ought to be able to handle a higher level of traffic when something important is happening. I mean, come on, it's 2021, not 1997.
 
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