• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We would love for you to become a part of our community.
    Take a moment to look around and join the discussion.
    CLICK HERE TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
1-800-PetMeds

Severe Weather 2021 (12 Viewers)

Mike S

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,686
Location
Huntsville, Al
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Anyone remember the freak tornado from the 20kft rotating rain shower a couple of days ago? An NWS Jackson met put out this thread which explains the synoptics of the event and how he reacted to it while issuing warnings at the office.


Cool stuff!

Daniel is not only "An NWS Jackson met" but he is also the former owner of Talkweather!
 

Evan

Member
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,964
Location
McCalla, AL
Anyone remember the freak tornado from the 20kft rotating rain shower a couple of days ago? An NWS Jackson met put out this thread which explains the synoptics of the event and how he reacted to it while issuing warnings at the office.


Excellent thread. I especially got a kick out of the part where Daniel mentioned JAN received a tweet from someone watching on GRlevel3 who wondered why they hadn't warned the storm.

Many of us have been guilty of questioning NWS warnings (sometimes rightly sometimes not), and it's important to remember the huge amount of experience, education, and training they have. Armchair wx buffs, like i myself am, can't touch that level of experience, education, and training. Sure, certain WFOs have a reputation for being slow to warn, but overall in the Southeast we're blessed to have top-notch WFOs like JAN/BMX.

Plus, we have zero visibility into what their workload is like or how many things (or storms) they're juggling at one time. The NWS isn't perfect, Daniel himself readily admitted that, but their batting average overall is simply stellar. I thought Daniel's thread was a very interesting glimpse into the warning process and it incorporated many of the factors I mentioned above.
 
Messages
761
Location
Madison, WI
Excellent thread. I especially got a kick out of the part where Daniel mentioned JAN received a tweet from someone watching on GRlevel3 who wondered why they hadn't warned the storm.

Many of us have been guilty of questioning NWS warnings (sometimes rightly sometimes not), and it's important to remember the huge amount of experience, education, and training they have. Armchair wx buffs, like i myself am, can't touch that level of experience, education, and training. Sure, certain WFOs have a reputation for being slow to warn, but overall in the Southeast we're blessed to have top-notch WFOs like JAN/BMX.

Plus, we have zero visibility into what their workload is like or how many things (or storms) they're juggling at one time. The NWS isn't perfect, Daniel himself readily admitted that, but their batting average overall is simply stellar. I thought Daniel's thread was a very interesting glimpse into the warning process and it incorporated many of the factors I mentioned above.

Way better response than the dickish "No." from DDC.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
2,402
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
That "no" ended up being an EF2 tornado. Probably the most unprofessional behavior I have ever seen from a WFO. I hope they learned their lesson, and received some much needed ego reduction.
In a field like meteorology where mistakes are inevitable, humility is really an essential trait (as it is in any science). It was such a bad look for them to be that dismissive because sometimes it turns out they're wrong.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,829
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
As we are now heading into prime time severe weather season for the south ... it sure is awful quiet in this thread .
Because it’s not looking nearly as active as the last 2 weeks of March. Split flow and high AAM means we’ll probably continue seeing these cut offs. Doesn’t preclude any threat but it’s not looking nearly as active for the foreseeable future.

Wednesday/Thursday will probably have some severe wx but dynamics will be weakening...it’s not looking impressive. I don’t see anything beyond that...but that doesn’t mean we won’t see one of those following cut offs trend toward something severe wx wise.
 
Messages
761
Location
Madison, WI
As much as I like events to armchair chase, the South needs a break (4/27/11 alone ought to have been about a full decade's worth of tornado activity for Alabama, eastern Mississippi and parts of northwest Georgia and eastern/southern middle Tennessee) and multiple years have demonstrated that early activity there is not a good predictor for quality of the later Plains/Midwest chase season.
 

Weatherphreak

Member
Messages
195
Location
Huntsville
As we are now heading into prime time severe weather season for the south ... it sure is awful quiet in this thread .
Not really much to talk about. I guess there could be some active weather over Arkansas towards Mississippi Wednesday. Maybe some more storms Thursday but nothing compared to what we’ve experienced the past couple weeks. GFS has been showing a storm with a good Low placement for the south around the 15th but it’s been inconsistent run over run.
 

WesL

Devil's Advocate
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
2021 Supporter
Messages
2,841
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Not really much to talk about. I guess there could be some active weather over Arkansas towards Mississippi Wednesday. Maybe some more storms Thursday but nothing compared to what we’ve experienced the past couple weeks. GFS has been showing a storm with a good Low placement for the south around the 15th but it’s been inconsistent run over run.
Bring the action :)
 

MattW

Member
Messages
223
Location
Decatur, GA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
The last I saw longish range that the 2nd half of April has more potential to heat up. Do our experts on here still think that that is the case? To be clear, I know that just because conditions are conducive, does not necessarily mean that severe storms WILL happen.
 

Evan

Member
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,964
Location
McCalla, AL
That "no" ended up being an EF2 tornado. Probably the most unprofessional behavior I have ever seen from a WFO. I hope they learned their lesson, and received some much needed ego reduction.

That was really really bad. Just goes to show why we need more people like Daniel Lamb working warnings than whomever that was on DDC's Twitter trying to be snarky.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

  • KoD
Top