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Severe Weather 2021

NXStumpy_Robothing said:
Anyone remember the freak tornado from the 20kft rotating rain shower a couple of days ago? An NWS Jackson met put out this thread which explains the synoptics of the event and how he reacted to it while issuing warnings at the office.

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Cool stuff!

Daniel is not only "An NWS Jackson met" but he is also the former owner of Talkweather!
 
NXStumpy_Robothing said:
Anyone remember the freak tornado from the 20kft rotating rain shower a couple of days ago? An NWS Jackson met put out this thread which explains the synoptics of the event and how he reacted to it while issuing warnings at the office.

Click to expand...


Excellent thread. I especially got a kick out of the part where Daniel mentioned JAN received a tweet from someone watching on GRlevel3 who wondered why they hadn't warned the storm.

Many of us have been guilty of questioning NWS warnings (sometimes rightly sometimes not), and it's important to remember the huge amount of experience, education, and training they have. Armchair wx buffs, like i myself am, can't touch that level of experience, education, and training. Sure, certain WFOs have a reputation for being slow to warn, but overall in the Southeast we're blessed to have top-notch WFOs like JAN/BMX.

Plus, we have zero visibility into what their workload is like or how many things (or storms) they're juggling at one time. The NWS isn't perfect, Daniel himself readily admitted that, but their batting average overall is simply stellar. I thought Daniel's thread was a very interesting glimpse into the warning process and it incorporated many of the factors I mentioned above.
 
Evan said:
Excellent thread. I especially got a kick out of the part where Daniel mentioned JAN received a tweet from someone watching on GRlevel3 who wondered why they hadn't warned the storm.

Many of us have been guilty of questioning NWS warnings (sometimes rightly sometimes not), and it's important to remember the huge amount of experience, education, and training they have. Armchair wx buffs, like i myself am, can't touch that level of experience, education, and training. Sure, certain WFOs have a reputation for being slow to warn, but overall in the Southeast we're blessed to have top-notch WFOs like JAN/BMX.

Plus, we have zero visibility into what their workload is like or how many things (or storms) they're juggling at one time. The NWS isn't perfect, Daniel himself readily admitted that, but their batting average overall is simply stellar. I thought Daniel's thread was a very interesting glimpse into the warning process and it incorporated many of the factors I mentioned above.
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Way better response than the dickish "No." from DDC.
 
buckeye05 said:
That "no" ended up being an EF2 tornado. Probably the most unprofessional behavior I have ever seen from a WFO. I hope they learned their lesson, and received some much needed ego reduction.
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In a field like meteorology where mistakes are inevitable, humility is really an essential trait (as it is in any science). It was such a bad look for them to be that dismissive because sometimes it turns out they're wrong.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
As we are now heading into prime time severe weather season for the south ... it sure is awful quiet in this thread .
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Because it’s not looking nearly as active as the last 2 weeks of March. Split flow and high AAM means we’ll probably continue seeing these cut offs. Doesn’t preclude any threat but it’s not looking nearly as active for the foreseeable future.

Wednesday/Thursday will probably have some severe wx but dynamics will be weakening...it’s not looking impressive. I don’t see anything beyond that...but that doesn’t mean we won’t see one of those following cut offs trend toward something severe wx wise.
 
As much as I like events to armchair chase, the South needs a break (4/27/11 alone ought to have been about a full decade's worth of tornado activity for Alabama, eastern Mississippi and parts of northwest Georgia and eastern/southern middle Tennessee) and multiple years have demonstrated that early activity there is not a good predictor for quality of the later Plains/Midwest chase season.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
As we are now heading into prime time severe weather season for the south ... it sure is awful quiet in this thread .
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Not really much to talk about. I guess there could be some active weather over Arkansas towards Mississippi Wednesday. Maybe some more storms Thursday but nothing compared to what we’ve experienced the past couple weeks. GFS has been showing a storm with a good Low placement for the south around the 15th but it’s been inconsistent run over run.
 
Weatherphreak said:
Not really much to talk about. I guess there could be some active weather over Arkansas towards Mississippi Wednesday. Maybe some more storms Thursday but nothing compared to what we’ve experienced the past couple weeks. GFS has been showing a storm with a good Low placement for the south around the 15th but it’s been inconsistent run over run.
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Bring the action :-)
 
The last I saw longish range that the 2nd half of April has more potential to heat up. Do our experts on here still think that that is the case? To be clear, I know that just because conditions are conducive, does not necessarily mean that severe storms WILL happen.
 
buckeye05 said:
That "no" ended up being an EF2 tornado. Probably the most unprofessional behavior I have ever seen from a WFO. I hope they learned their lesson, and received some much needed ego reduction.
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That was really really bad. Just goes to show why we need more people like Daniel Lamb working warnings than whomever that was on DDC's Twitter trying to be snarky.
 
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