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It’s “experimental”So what's the deal with the CFS dashboard? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/ It doesn't seem to have this week's threat at all, and I don't think it really picked up on 3/17 at any point either.
What happened to last weeks bad weather? It never really materialized.
Maybe not for you but it “materialized” for the people who were impacted by the 39+ tornadoes that touched down over 9 states. *shrug*What happened to last weeks bad weather? It never really materialized.
What area(s)? Please don’t say Dixie Alley.Really watching the period around the 28th.
What area(s)? Please don’t say Dixie Alley.
So we have a threat on Thu and Sun?!Yep, AR, LA, MS, AL and TN.
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Eastern TX to the Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper shortwave trough over the Rio Grande/northern Mexico will
strengthen and become negatively tilted as it ejects northeast
across the Arklatex through Thursday evening, and to the Ohio Valley
by Friday morning. Intense shear will overspread the south-central
and southern U.S. ahead of the trough. Furthermore, strong low-level
warm advection will result in a broad warm sector ahead of a
deepening surface low and eastward-advancing cold front from the
Sabine Valley eastward across the central Gulf coast/TN Valley
vicinity.
Differences in the evolution of the surface low across the lower MS
and OH Valleys are still apparent in medium-range guidance. This is
mainly resulting in uncertainty in the position of the surface low
and cold front Thursday morning, and how far east each of these
features progresses by Friday morning. As a result, changes in
severe probabilities, especially on the western and northeastern
edges, are likely in the coming days. Nevertheless, weak to moderate
instability will overlap with favorable shear parameters and an
overall supportive pattern for severe convection. A couple of rounds
of severe storms could be possible, as some warm-sector development
may occur across the Lower MS Valley before a QLCS develops along
the surging cold front during the evening/nighttime hours. All
severe hazards will be possible with discrete warm-sector
supercells. Potential for damaging gusts and tornadoes will becoming
preferential with any upscale development along the cold front.
Thursday is something to watch but there are hints that there could be another one ~SundayCIPS seems to be picking up on something over the weekend.
View attachment 7293
Yeah and it’s not even April yet...Thursday is something to watch but there are hints that there could be another one ~Sunday
.......and so it begins.....
Right?! Ugh...Yeah and it’s not even April yet...
The Numbers are higher as far as dewpoints, CAPE, Supercell composite, then last weeks event. Very ominous to say the least.