Severe Weather 2021

[MattPetrulli]

CIPS analogs really like this one

 

[MattW]

So what's the deal with the CFS dashboard? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/ It doesn't seem to have this week's threat at all, and I don't think it really picked up on 3/17 at any point either.

 

[KevinH]

So what's the deal with the CFS dashboard? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/ It doesn't seem to have this week's threat at all, and I don't think it really picked up on 3/17 at any point either.

It’s “experimental”

 

[N4GKS]

What happened to last weeks bad weather? It never really materialized.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

What happened to last weeks bad weather? It never really materialized.

It was discussed in detail in this thread:

Severe WX - Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

A thread for the potential severe weather event this coming Wednesday. I might need to go back and add Thursday since there's some potential for trouble along the east coast before this moves off shore, but for now, the SPC hasn't outlined a threat area so I'll just include 17 March in the...

talkweather.com

 

[KevinH]

What happened to last weeks bad weather? It never really materialized.

Maybe not for you but it “materialized” for the people who were impacted by the 39+ tornadoes that touched down over 9 states. *shrug*

 

[ARCC]

Really watching the period around the 28th.

 

[KevinH]

Really watching the period around the 28th.

What area(s)? Please don’t say Dixie Alley.

 

[ARCC]

What area(s)? Please don’t say Dixie Alley.

Yep, AR, LA, MS, AL and TN.

 

[KevinH]

Yep, AR, LA, MS, AL and TN.

So we have a threat on Thu and Sun?!

I am not surprised.

 

[MattW]

I'm not really seeing anything substantial for the 28th, just some lower end potential in south-central Alabama on the 27th.

 

[pohnpei]

NAM comes as Thursday's event. Still 84h out but tornado potential may exist in some areas based on the environment now present.
soundings from mid MS


SPC depict a 15%.

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Eastern TX to the Central Gulf Coast States...

An upper shortwave trough over the Rio Grande/northern Mexico will
strengthen and become negatively tilted as it ejects northeast
across the Arklatex through Thursday evening, and to the Ohio Valley
by Friday morning. Intense shear will overspread the south-central
and southern U.S. ahead of the trough. Furthermore, strong low-level
warm advection will result in a broad warm sector ahead of a
deepening surface low and eastward-advancing cold front from the
Sabine Valley eastward across the central Gulf coast/TN Valley
vicinity.

Differences in the evolution of the surface low across the lower MS
and OH Valleys are still apparent in medium-range guidance. This is
mainly resulting in uncertainty in the position of the surface low
and cold front Thursday morning, and how far east each of these
features progresses by Friday morning. As a result, changes in
severe probabilities, especially on the western and northeastern
edges, are likely in the coming days. Nevertheless, weak to moderate
instability will overlap with favorable shear parameters and an
overall supportive pattern for severe convection. A couple of rounds
of severe storms could be possible, as some warm-sector development
may occur across the Lower MS Valley before a QLCS develops along
the surging cold front during the evening/nighttime hours. All
severe hazards will be possible with discrete warm-sector
supercells. Potential for damaging gusts and tornadoes will becoming
preferential with any upscale development along the cold front.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS seems to be picking up on something over the weekend.

 

[KevinH]

CIPS seems to be picking up on something over the weekend.
View attachment 7293

Thursday is something to watch but there are hints that there could be another one ~Sunday

.......and so it begins.....

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Thursday is something to watch but there are hints that there could be another one ~Sunday

.......and so it begins.....

Yeah and it’s not even April yet...

 

[KevinH]

Yeah and it’s not even April yet...

Right?! Ugh...

 

[Justin Hindman]

The Numbers are higher as far as dewpoints, CAPE, Supercell composite, then last weeks event. Very ominous to say the least.

 

[Austin Dawg]

The Numbers are higher as far as dewpoints, CAPE, Supercell composite, then last weeks event. Very ominous to say the least.

Severe in my neck of the woods.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 45
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
605 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and North Texas

* Effective this Monday night from 605 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A modest instability and strong shear environment will support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across central into north-central Texas this evening. Some supercells will be possible particularly across central Texas, while a line of organizing storms
may otherwise develop toward the I-35 corridor/north-central Texas
including the Metroplex vicinity. Severe hail/wind will be the
primary hazards, but a tornado risk cannot be entirely ruled as a
low-level jet increases after sunset.

 

[Austin Dawg]

TOR Warning just went by to my north a couple of miles heading east. I was watching it and wondered if I was seeing things.,

 

[WhirlingWx]

Some damage coming out of Bertram, TX @Austin Dawg