Archive Severe Weather 2019

[Kory]

Looks like instability is minimal outside of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, that’s a pattern that would favor severe.

 

[WesL]

EURO op and control is very concerning for next Tuesday.

18z run is still running but here is the preview...

 

[Kory]

The GFS would be Armageddon if we actually had any instability. But it’s near zero.

 

[WesL]

Just sayin' I need an excuse to stay out of the political thread...

 

[Kory]

Models really backing off.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The models are all over the place.

 

[warneagle]

The GFS has maybe a little something next Friday evening in Texas? It’s not nothing anyway. There’s at least a little bit of moisture return ahead of that system.

 

[bwalk]

Mercy! What a monster trough. If this were April...............

Regardless, Reed Timmer is already talking about a "tornado outbreak" with this system. I haven't checked moisture levels with this.

 

[Kory]

A bird could fart and Reed Timmer would be calling for an outbreak.

 

[Kory]

Models have pulled a 180. Euro is back to a problematic solution for Tuesday.

 

[bwalk]

Models have pulled a 180. Euro is back to a problematic solution for Tuesday.

Please tell us more.

 

[Kory]

Please tell us more.

Much better instability with a roaring low level jet, rapidly deepening surface low, and WSW 500mb flow means supercells and likely a tornado threat verbatim.

 

[bwalk]

Much better instability with a roaring low level jet, rapidly deepening surface low, and WSW 500mb flow means supercells and likely a tornado threat verbatim.

Thanks. That's a recipe for trouble.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.

 

[warneagle]

The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.

Yeah the 12z GFS remains unimpressed with it.

 

[Kory]

EPS looks similar to the operational from what I glanced at.

 

[andyhb]

The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.

The signal is there in the 12z EPS. Due to the relatively low amplitude nature of the trough, it will be smoothed out in the mean. A look like this is problematic should sufficient moisture/instability materialize. Also note how far south the 570 dam contour is here.

 

[MattW]

What region are we talking about?

 

[andyhb]

What region are we talking about?

Kind of up in the air at this point. I get the feeling the first system might be a bit too starved of moisture to be a more substantial threat. There have been some hints at a very large trough developing in the west for Thanksgiving weekend though, 12z Euro shows this nicely (with moisture available).

 

[warneagle]

Definitely don't sleep on central TX on Friday.