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Severe Weather 2019 (2 Viewers)


WesL

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Just sayin' I need an excuse to stay out of the political thread...

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warneagle

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The GFS has maybe a little something next Friday evening in Texas? It’s not nothing anyway. There’s at least a little bit of moisture return ahead of that system.
 

bwalk

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Mercy! What a monster trough. If this were April...............

Regardless, Reed Timmer is already talking about a "tornado outbreak" with this system. I haven't checked moisture levels with this.

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Taylor Campbell

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The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.
 

andyhb

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Norman, OK
The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.
The signal is there in the 12z EPS. Due to the relatively low amplitude nature of the trough, it will be smoothed out in the mean. A look like this is problematic should sufficient moisture/instability materialize. Also note how far south the 570 dam contour is here.

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andyhb

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What region are we talking about?
Kind of up in the air at this point. I get the feeling the first system might be a bit too starved of moisture to be a more substantial threat. There have been some hints at a very large trough developing in the west for Thanksgiving weekend though, 12z Euro shows this nicely (with moisture available).

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