The signal is there in the 12z EPS. Due to the relatively low amplitude nature of the trough, it will be smoothed out in the mean. A look like this is problematic should sufficient moisture/instability materialize. Also note how far south the 570 dam contour is here.The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.
Kind of up in the air at this point. I get the feeling the first system might be a bit too starved of moisture to be a more substantial threat. There have been some hints at a very large trough developing in the west for Thanksgiving weekend though, 12z Euro shows this nicely (with moisture available).What region are we talking about?