Archive Severe Weather 2019 (1 Viewer)


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Kory

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According to what/whom? SPC was still kind of blasé about it on the Day 4-8 due to progged marginal instability.
All 12z guidance. Lapse rates are rather poo poo, but with dew points in the warm sector in the 65-70 degree range, we should get enough surface based instability with rather impressive shear parameters. That trough goes negative tilt right over the warm sector...
 
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All 12z guidance. Lapse rates are rather poo poo, but with dew points in the warm sector in the 65-70 degree range, we should get enough surface based instability with rather impressive shear parameters. That trough goes negative tilt right over the warm sector...
So this is looking more likely a wind threat with poor lapse rates ?
 

Timhsv

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Sunday is looking A LOT more impressive. May need to keep a very close eye.
Me as well. 12Z Nam had EHI now up to 1.2-1.5 across N Mississippi Saturday evening and trying to resurface across North Alabama Sunday afternoon, with a secondary 500mb jet streak from the SW at nearly 95 knts. Last event fooled me some, this one will not this time.
 

Timhsv

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1577436124687.png
Looks as if we may have a threat now as the secondary jet streak will come into play attm. CAPE is still modest, but the amazing shear will help compensate for any lack of instability at this point.
 
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Kory

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Mid level temps might pose a problem when it comes to destabilization. This system is on the opposite end of the spectrum than December 16th where lapse rates were 6.5-7.5 C/KM. We’re looking at struggling to get above 6.0 C/KM. Despite have mid 60 dews, were struggling to destabilize to get sustained updrafts that’s why the NAM 3KM have no UH streaks on the 12z despite convection across the warm sector.
 

Lori

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Mid level temps might pose a problem when it comes to destabilization. This system is on the opposite end of the spectrum than December 16th where lapse rates were 6.5-7.5 C/KM. We’re looking at struggling to get above 6.0 C/KM. Despite have mid 60 dews, were struggling to destabilize to get sustained updrafts that’s why the NAM 3KM have no UH streaks on the 12z despite convection across the warm sector.
I sure hope so!!
 

Taylor Campbell

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The US/UK versus CMC/EURO. The GFS has trended a lot differently over the past few days.

12z model comparison. US, UK, CMC, EURO.

12z model comparison.gif

GEFS 500mb Trend

gefs 500mb wind trend.gif
 
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bwalk

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The US/UK versus CMC/EURO. The GFS has trended a lot differently over the past few days.

12z model comparison. US, UK, CMC, EURO.

View attachment 2251

GEFS 500mb Trend

View attachment 2252
This is in reference to the system AFTER tomorrow's system, correct? I agree. At the moment a strong cold front, as evidenced by much colder temps than tomorrow's (12/29) cold front is being progged for NEXT weekend (1/4-5). Still early & lack of model agreement.
 

Timhsv

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Now I starting to rethink things just a little. I'm seeing this not only on the 3km HRRR, I'm seeing almost the same thing on the 3km NAM. Sunday may be a little sneaky between Huntsville and Birmingham. I mean there will be a 100-110 knt 500mb jet streak to our west tommorrow evening from the SW. Waiting on what SPC thinks.

1577593334575.png
 

Taylor Campbell

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Now I starting to rethink things just a little. I'm seeing this not only on the 3km HRRR, I'm seeing almost the same thing on the 3km NAM. Sunday may be a little sneaky between Huntsville and Birmingham. I mean there will be a 100-110 knt 500mb jet streak to our west tommorrow evening from the SW. Waiting on what SPC thinks.
I'm like you Tim. I feel like we are on the path to an interesting day tomorrow. I would be on the lookout for something significant to occur.
 

bwalk

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Line of storms from Columbus, Ms. up to Russellville, al. at 2pm. Another line south of Tuscaloosa. Everything moving NNE. The storms south of Tusc will move into that area of possible concern between Bham and Huntsville in next couple of hours.
 
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