Kory
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GFS Atmospheric Anti-Climax HORRIBLY for this past weekend’s storm across the Gulf Coast and Deep South. It’s bias is too far south and east. I’m leaning more toward the euro.
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Archive Severe Weather 2019
- Thread starter JayF
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Kory
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Sunday is looking A LOT more impressive. May need to keep a very close eye.
CheeselandSkies
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According to what/whom? SPC was still kind of blasé about it on the Day 4-8 due to progged marginal instability.
Kory
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All 12z guidance. Lapse rates are rather poo poo, but with dew points in the warm sector in the 65-70 degree range, we should get enough surface based instability with rather impressive shear parameters. That trough goes negative tilt right over the warm sector...
tennessee storm chaser
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So this is looking more likely a wind threat with poor lapse rates ?
Timhsv
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Me as well. 12Z Nam had EHI now up to 1.2-1.5 across N Mississippi Saturday evening and trying to resurface across North Alabama Sunday afternoon, with a secondary 500mb jet streak from the SW at nearly 95 knts. Last event fooled me some, this one will not this time.
Timhsv
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Looks as if we may have a threat now as the secondary jet streak will come into play attm. CAPE is still modest, but the amazing shear will help compensate for any lack of instability at this point.
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Kory
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Mid level temps might pose a problem when it comes to destabilization. This system is on the opposite end of the spectrum than December 16th where lapse rates were 6.5-7.5 C/KM. We’re looking at struggling to get above 6.0 C/KM. Despite have mid 60 dews, were struggling to destabilize to get sustained updrafts that’s why the NAM 3KM have no UH streaks on the 12z despite convection across the warm sector.
I sure hope so!!
The US/UK versus CMC/EURO. The GFS has trended a lot differently over the past few days.
12z model comparison. US, UK, CMC, EURO.
GEFS 500mb Trend
12z model comparison. US, UK, CMC, EURO.
GEFS 500mb Trend
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bwalk
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This is in reference to the system AFTER tomorrow's system, correct? I agree. At the moment a strong cold front, as evidenced by much colder temps than tomorrow's (12/29) cold front is being progged for NEXT weekend (1/4-5). Still early & lack of model agreement.
Timhsv
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Now I starting to rethink things just a little. I'm seeing this not only on the 3km HRRR, I'm seeing almost the same thing on the 3km NAM. Sunday may be a little sneaky between Huntsville and Birmingham. I mean there will be a 100-110 knt 500mb jet streak to our west tommorrow evening from the SW. Waiting on what SPC thinks.
I'm like you Tim. I feel like we are on the path to an interesting day tomorrow. I would be on the lookout for something significant to occur.
Timhsv
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Timhsv
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Marion County, AL....
Interesting sounding...
bwalk
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Line of storms from Columbus, Ms. up to Russellville, al. at 2pm. Another line south of Tuscaloosa. Everything moving NNE. The storms south of Tusc will move into that area of possible concern between Bham and Huntsville in next couple of hours.
Kory
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Rather unorganized convection so far. We’ll have to see if deep layer shear allows for more organization through the afternoon.
warneagle
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Tornado warning for the northern suburbs of Jackson.
warneagle
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Tornado watch is up as well.
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